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China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models

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  • Feng, Lianyong
  • Li, Junchen
  • Pang, Xiongqi

Abstract

In order to forecast future oil production it is necessary to know the size of the reserves and use models. In this article, we use the typical Peak Oil models, the Hu-Chen-Zhang model usually called HCZ model and the Hubbert model, which have been used commonly for forecasting in China and the world, to forecast China's oil Ultimate Recovery (URR). The former appears to give more realistic results based on an URR for China of 15.64 billion tons. The study leads to some suggestions for new policies to meet the unfolding energy situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Lianyong & Li, Junchen & Pang, Xiongqi, 2008. "China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4149-4153, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:11:p:4149-4153
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Linwei & Liu, Pei & Fu, Feng & Li, Zheng & Ni, Weidou, 2011. "Integrated energy strategy for the sustainable development of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1143-1154.
    2. Wang, Xibo & Lei, Yalin & Ge, Jianping & Wu, Sanmang, 2015. "Production forecast of China׳s rare earths based on the Generalized Weng model and policy recommendations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 11-18.
    3. Ma, Linwei & Fu, Feng & Li, Zheng & Liu, Pei, 2012. "Oil development in China: Current status and future trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 43-53.
    4. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
    5. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Steve, Mohr & Tang, Xu & Gail, Tverberg E. & Mikael, Höök, 2015. "China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-42.
    6. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:1003-:d:101115 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wang, Ke & Feng, Lianyong & Wang, Jianliang & Xiong, Yi & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 586-596.
    8. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 252-266.
    9. Zhao, Chunfu & Chen, Bin, 2014. "China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 269-279.

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