Tracking global fuel supply, CO2 emissions and sustainable development
Reducing CO2 emissions is imperative to stay within the 2oC global warming ‘safe limit’ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However to ensure social and political stability, these reductions must be aligned with fuel security and economic growth. Here an advanced multifactorial model is used to forecast global energy demand, based on global population, current energy use and economic growth rates allowing a critical analysis of global energy use patterns. A severe upward pressure on global energy demand results from the combined interplay of increasing population and continuing economic growth. The predictive output highlights (i) the potential for an exponential increase of fuel consumption (ii) serious fossil fuel limitations from 2033 onward, (iii) implications for CO2 emission reduction in a ‘pro-growth’ global economy and (iv) poverty alleviation. These findings place economists and environmentalists on the same side and establish a reference to guide sustainable development.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: +61 7 3365 6570|
Phone: +61 7 3365 6570
Fax: +61 7 3365 7299
Web page: http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kjärstad, Jan & Johnsson, Filip, 2009. "Resources and future supply of oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 441-464, February.
- John Foster, 2010.
"Energy, Aesthetics and Knowledge in Complex Economic Systems,"
Discussion Papers Series
404, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Foster, John, 2011. "Energy, aesthetics and knowledge in complex economic systems," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 88-100.
- Bentley, R.W. & Mannan, S.A. & Wheeler, S.J., 2007. "Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6364-6382, December.
- Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2008.
"Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3063-3076, November.
- Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2009. "Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-239, March.
- Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2010. "Long term prediction of unconventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 265-276, January.
- Stern, David & Enflo, Kerstin, 2013.
"Causality Between Energy and Output in the Long-Run,"
Lund Papers in Economic History
126, Department of Economic History, Lund University.
- Stern, David I. & Enflo, Kerstin, 2013. "Causality between energy and output in the long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 135-146.
- David I. Stern & Kerstin Enflo, 2013. "Causality Between Energy and Output in the Long-Run," CAMA Working Papers 2013-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:7-2013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SOE IT)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.