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Tracking global fuel supply, CO2 emissions and sustainable development

  • Liam Wagner


    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Ian Ross


    (IMB, University of Queensland)

  • John Foster


    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Ben Hankamer


    (IMB, University of Queensland)

Reducing CO2 emissions is imperative to stay within the 2oC global warming ‘safe limit’ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However to ensure social and political stability, these reductions must be aligned with fuel security and economic growth. Here an advanced multifactorial model is used to forecast global energy demand, based on global population, current energy use and economic growth rates allowing a critical analysis of global energy use patterns. A severe upward pressure on global energy demand results from the combined interplay of increasing population and continuing economic growth. The predictive output highlights (i) the potential for an exponential increase of fuel consumption (ii) serious fossil fuel limitations from 2033 onward, (iii) implications for CO2 emission reduction in a ‘pro-growth’ global economy and (iv) poverty alleviation. These findings place economists and environmentalists on the same side and establish a reference to guide sustainable development.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers with number 7-2013.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:7-2013
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  1. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2010. "Long term prediction of unconventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 265-276, January.
  2. Stern, David & Enflo, Kerstin, 2013. "Causality Between Energy and Output in the Long-Run," Lund Papers in Economic History 126, Department of Economic History, Lund University.
  3. Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2009. "Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-239, March.
  4. Foster, John, 2011. "Energy, aesthetics and knowledge in complex economic systems," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 88-100.
  5. Kjärstad, Jan & Johnsson, Filip, 2009. "Resources and future supply of oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 441-464, February.
  6. Bentley, R.W. & Mannan, S.A. & Wheeler, S.J., 2007. "Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6364-6382, December.
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