Oil and the political economy of energy
The key issues concerning oil exploitation are still open for discussion: there is no agreement about where we presently stand in the world oil extraction curve, what is its exact shape, and how far can oil price grow before it changes irreversibly the world economy and consumer behavior. The paper proposes an alternative scenario to the Hubbert's bell-shaped model of oil exploitation, based on more realistic assumptions regarding political agendas in oil-exporting countries and consumer behavior dynamics in oil-importing countries. Under this scenario, the joint impact of markets and public policy in oil importing countries together with "resource pragmatism" policy in oil-exporting countries allows for a less steep oil supply curve with a much fatter tail compared to the Hubbert's model.
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- Guriev, Sergei & Kolotilin, Anton & Sonin, Konstantin, 2008.
"Determinants of Expropriation in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sergei Guriev & Anton Kolotilin & Konstantin Sonin, 2011. "Determinants of Nationalization in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 301-323.
- Sergei Guriev & Konstantin Sonin & Anton Kolotilin, 2007. "Determinants of Expropriation in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," Working Papers w0115, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
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