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Peak globalization: Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

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  • Curtis, Fred

Abstract

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed.

Suggested Citation

  • Curtis, Fred, 2009. "Peak globalization: Climate change, oil depletion and global trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 427-434, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:69:y:2009:i:2:p:427-434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
    2. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    3. Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2013. "Resource Return on Investment under Markup Pricing," MPRA Paper 49154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wicker, Pamela & Becken, Susanne, 2013. "Conscientious vs. ambivalent consumers: Do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 41-48.
    5. repec:eee:touman:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:105-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Robert Fish & Michael Winter & Matt Lobley, 2014. "Sustainable intensification and ecosystem services: new directions in agricultural governance," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 47(1), pages 51-67, March.
    7. Lu, Shyi-Min, 2016. "A low-carbon transport infrastructure in Taiwan based on the implementation of energy-saving measures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 499-509.
    8. Russo, D. & Dassisti, M. & Lawlor, V. & Olabi, A.G., 2012. "State of the art of biofuels from pure plant oil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 4056-4070.
    9. Ulrich Hoffmann, 2011. "Some Reflections On Climate Change, Green Growth Illusions And Development Space," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 205, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    10. Chen, Shang-Yu, 2016. "Using the sustainable modified TAM and TPB to analyze the effects of perceived green value on loyalty to a public bike system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 58-72.
    11. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 252-266.
    12. Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2014. "The inverted pyramid: A neo-Ricardian view on the economy–environment relationship," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 230-241.

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