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Peak globalization: Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

  • Curtis, Fred
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    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VDY-4X7SJ99-2/2/f407aeecf067988acce6d677385bc30e
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

    Volume (Year): 69 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (December)
    Pages: 427-434

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:69:y:2009:i:2:p:427-434
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

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    1. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John & Sommerville, Matt, 2009. "Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1356-1371, April.
    2. Tisdell, Clem, 2001. "Globalisation and sustainability: environmental Kuznets curve and the WTO," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 185-196, November.
    3. de Almeida, Pedro & Silva, Pedro D., 2009. "The peak of oil production--Timings and market recognition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1267-1276, April.
    4. Jennifer Clapp & Peter Dauvergne, 2005. "Paths to a Green World: The Political Economy of the Global Environment," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262532719, June.
    5. Zhao, Lin & Feng, Lianyong & Hall, Charles A.S., 2009. "Is peakoilism coming?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2136-2138, June.
    6. Simone Borghesi, 2008. "From Hubbert to Kuznets: on the sustainability of the current energy system," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 425-444.
    7. J. Samuel Barkin, 2003. "The Counterintuitive Relationship between Globalization and Climate Change," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 8-13, 08.
    8. Pimentel, David & Zuniga, Rodolfo & Morrison, Doug, 2005. "Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 273-288, February.
    9. Ribeiro, Suzana K & Kobayashi, Shigeki & Beuthe, Michel & Gasca, Jorge & Greene, David & Lee, David S. & Muromachi, Yasunori & Newton, Peter J. & Plotkin, Steven & Sperling, Daniel & Wit, Ron & Zhou, , 2007. "Transportation and its Infrastructure," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt98m5t1rv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    10. Borghesi, Simone & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2003. "Sustainable globalisation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 77-89, February.
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