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The Arctic: No big bonanza for the global petroleum industry

  • Lindholt, Lars
  • Glomsrød, Solveig
Registered author(s):

    Petroleum companies and Arctic states are carefully watching the sea ice withdrawal and the future access to petroleum resources in the Arctic. We raise the question if the global market for petroleum will actually keep the door open for substantial supply of oil and gas from the Arctic, a region with almost a quarter of global undiscovered petroleum resources, but at high costs and long lead times. This makes future Arctic supply highly dependent on oil and gas prices, influenced by future supply of unconventional oil and gas and also by huge amounts of conventional gas in the Middle East coming on stream. We study the oil and gas supplies from 6 Arctic regions during 2010–2050 using the FRISBEE model of global oil and gas markets, based on Arctic resource estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988312001296
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 1465-1474

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:1465-1474
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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    1. Finn Roar Aune & Klaus Mohn & Petter Osmundsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2007. "Industry restructuring, OPEC response – and oil price formation," Discussion Papers 511, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    2. Finn Roar Aune & Solveig Glomsrød & Lars Lindholt & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2005. "Are high oil prices profitable for OPEC in the long run?," Discussion Papers 416, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    3. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
    4. Norgaard, Richard B., 1990. "Economic indicators of resource scarcity: A critical essay," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-25, July.
    5. Finn Roar Aune & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2008. "Globalisation of natural gas markets – effects on prices and trade patterns," Discussion Papers 559, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    6. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.
    7. Lars Lindholt & Solveig Glomsrød, 2011. "The role of the Arctic in future global petroleum supply," Discussion Papers 645, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
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