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Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production

  • Höök, Mikael
  • Hirsch, Robert
  • Aleklett, Kjell
Registered author(s):

    The most important contributors to the world's total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world's giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base - giant fields - will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4VW4VF1-4/2/f6ca650b2d64b5f7f2e2a37e9006ec06
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 2262-2272

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:6:p:2262-2272
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. John M. Gowdy & Roxana Julia, 2005. "Technology and Petroleum Exhaustion: Evidence from Two Mega-Oilfields," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0512, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2006.
    2. Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2008. "A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4262-4271, November.
    3. Meng, Q.Y. & Bentley, R.W., 2008. "Global oil peaking: Responding to the case for ‘abundant supplies of oil’," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1179-1184.
    4. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
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