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A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production

  • Höök, Mikael
  • Aleklett, Kjell
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    Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001, Norway reached its peak production and began to decline. The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 4262-4271

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:11:p:4262-4271
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Campbell, C.J., 2006. "The Rimini Protocol an oil depletion protocol: Heading off economic chaos and political conflict during the second half of the age of oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1319-1325, August.
    2. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
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