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Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology

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  • Lucas Fievet
  • Zal`an Forr`o
  • Peter Cauwels
  • Didier Sornette

Abstract

We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.

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  • Lucas Fievet & Zal`an Forr`o & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2014. "Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology," Papers 1407.3652, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1407.3652
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Zal'an Forr'o & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2012. "When games meet reality: is Zynga overvalued?," Papers 1204.0350, arXiv.org, revised May 2012.
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