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Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import

Author

Listed:
  • Sällh, David
  • Höök, Mikael
  • Grandell, Leena
  • Davidsson, Simon

Abstract

This paper presents an updated historic oil production analysis as well as an updated future oil production forecast for Norway and Denmark. Previous forecasts conducted by academic and official agencies using a variety of methodologies are contrasted and their accuracy examined. The bottom-up field-by-field methodology is found to be precise in the short-term, as it deviates by less than 1% from actual production.

Suggested Citation

  • Sällh, David & Höök, Mikael & Grandell, Leena & Davidsson, Simon, 2014. "Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 333-345.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:333-345
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    2. Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2008. "A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4262-4271, November.
    3. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
    4. Höök, M. & Söderbergh, B. & Aleklett, K., 2009. "Future Danish oil and gas export," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1826-1834.
    5. Morris A. Adelman, 1993. "Modelling World Oil Supply," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-32.
    6. Ugo Bardi & Alessandro Lavacchi, 2009. "A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Stephen A. Rhoades, 1993. "The Herfindahl-Hirschman index," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Mar, pages 188-189.
    8. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Bentley, Roger & Söderbergh, Bengt & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 860-870.
    9. Lynch, Michael C., 2002. "Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 373-389.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:energy:v:130:y:2017:i:c:p:448-460 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Berk, Istemi & Ediger, Volkan Ş., 2016. "Forecasting the coal production: Hubbert curve application on Turkey's lignite fields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-203.
    3. repec:eee:appene:v:220:y:2018:i:c:p:138-153 is not listed on IDEAS

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