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Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable? Combining a Generalized Metcalfe's Law and the LPPLS Model

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  • Spencer Wheatley
  • Didier Sornette
  • Tobias Huber
  • Max Reppen
  • Robert N. Gantner

Abstract

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst. In these bubbles, we detect a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth. We model this universal pattern with the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which parsimoniously captures diverse positive feedback phenomena, such as herding and imitation. The LPPLS model is shown to provide an ex-ante warning of market instabilities, quantifying a high crash hazard and probabilistic bracket of the crash time consistent with the actual corrections; although, as always, the precise time and trigger (which straw breaks the camel's back) being exogenous and unpredictable. Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways bitcoin prices ahead (from the time of writing, March 2018).

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  • Spencer Wheatley & Didier Sornette & Tobias Huber & Max Reppen & Robert N. Gantner, 2018. "Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable? Combining a Generalized Metcalfe's Law and the LPPLS Model," Papers 1803.05663, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1803.05663
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, 2011. "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Papers 1108.0099, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
    2. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, & Wanfeng Yan & Wei-Xing Zhou, "undated". "Clarifications to Questions and Criticisms on the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette bubble Model," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-004, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    3. Z. Forr'o & P. Cauwels & D. Sornette, "undated". "When games meet reality: is Zynga overvalued?," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    4. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "What Does Bitcoin Look Like?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(2), pages 449-492, November.
    5. Anders Johansen & Olivier Ledoit & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Crashes As Critical Points," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 219-255.
    6. Zal'an Forr'o & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2012. "When games meet reality: is Zynga overvalued?," Papers 1204.0350, arXiv.org, revised May 2012.
    7. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
    8. Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, "undated". "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    9. Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
    10. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1998. "Evidence of Discrete Scale Invariance in DLA and Time-to-Failure by Canonical Averaging," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 433-447.
    11. Sornette, Didier & Cauwels, Peter, 2015. "Financial Bubbles: Mechanisms and Diagnostics," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 279-305, October.
    12. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    13. Peter Cauwels, Didier Sornette, "undated". "Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic of a bubble based on nonlinear demographic dynamics," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-007, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    14. Susanne von der Becke & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Should Banks Be Banned From Creating Money? An Analysis From the Perspective of Hierarchical Money," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 1019-1032, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arturas Sabalionis & Wenbo Wang & Hail Park, 2021. "What affects the price movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(1), pages 102-127, January.
    2. Papadamou, Stephanos & Kyriazis, Nikolaos A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Corbet, Shaen, 2021. "Herding behaviour and price convergence clubs in cryptocurrencies during bull and bear markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    3. M. Eren Akbiyik & Mert Erkul & Killian Kaempf & Vaiva Vasiliauskaite & Nino Antulov-Fantulin, 2021. "Ask "Who", Not "What": Bitcoin Volatility Forecasting with Twitter Data," Papers 2110.14317, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    4. Xiong, Jinwu & Liu, Qing & Zhao, Lei, 2020. "A new method to verify Bitcoin bubbles: Based on the production cost," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Nino Antulov-Fantulin & Dijana Tolic & Matija Piskorec & Zhang Ce & Irena Vodenska, 2018. "Inferring short-term volatility indicators from Bitcoin blockchain," Papers 1809.07856, arXiv.org.
    6. Pele, Daniel Traian & Mazurencu-Marinescu-Pele, Miruna, 2019. "Metcalfe's law and herding behaviour in the cryptocurrencies market," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-16, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Pele, Daniel Traian & Mazurencu-Marinescu-Pele, Miruna, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies, Metcalfe's law and LPPL models," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-056, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    8. Qiang Ji & Ronald D. Ripple & Dayong Zhang & Yuqian Zhao, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Bubble on the Systemic Risk in Global Energy Companies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(1_suppl), pages 1-24, June.
    9. Alexandre Bovet & Carlo Campajola & Jorge F. Lazo & Francesco Mottes & Iacopo Pozzana & Valerio Restocchi & Pietro Saggese & Nicol'o Vallarano & Tiziano Squartini & Claudio J. Tessone, 2018. "Network-based indicators of Bitcoin bubbles," Papers 1805.04460, arXiv.org.
    10. Gidea, Marian & Goldsmith, Daniel & Katz, Yuri & Roldan, Pablo & Shmalo, Yonah, 2020. "Topological recognition of critical transitions in time series of cryptocurrencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
    11. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Irena Barjav{s}i'c & Nino Antulov-Fantulin, 2020. "Time-varying volatility in Bitcoin market and information flow at minute-level frequency," Papers 2004.00550, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.

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