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Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Soren T. Anderson
  • Ryan Kellogg
  • James M. Sallee
  • Richard T. Curtin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.

Suggested Citation

  • Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & James M. Sallee & Richard T. Curtin, 2011. "Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 110-114, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:110-14
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.3.110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderson, Soren T. & Kellogg, Ryan & Sallee, James M., 2013. "What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 383-403.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Soren T. & Kellogg, Ryan & Sallee, James M., 2013. "What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 383-403.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    3. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 10162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Jiménez, Alan A. & Walke, Adam G., 2015. "An econometric analysis of retail gasoline prices in a border metropolitan economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 450-461.
    5. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    6. repec:eee:touman:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:213-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:wly:japmet:v:32:y:2017:i:2:p:275-295 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2016. "Forecasting Meat Prices using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229858, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
    10. Chugh, Randy & Cropper, Maureen & Narain, Urvashi, 2011. "The cost of fuel economy in the Indian passenger vehicle market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7174-7183.
    11. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Elena Verdolini & Massimo Tavoni, 2015. "Directed Technological Change and Energy Efficiency Improvements," Working Papers 2015.78, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Thoenes, Stefan & Gores, Timo, 2012. "Attention, Media and Fuel Efficiency," EWI Working Papers 2012-11, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    13. Baghestani, Hamid, 2015. "Predicting gasoline prices using Michigan survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-32.
    14. Zhao, Xuan & Xing, Wei & Liu, Liming & Wang, Shouyang, 2015. "Demand information and spot price information: Supply chains trading in spot markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 837-849.
    15. DeCicco, John & Yan, Ting & Keusch, Florian & Muñoz, Diego Horna & Neidert, Lisa, 2015. "U.S. consumer attitudes and expectations about energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 749-758.
    16. Sébastien Houde & Joseph E. Aldy, 2017. "The Efficiency Consequences of Heterogeneous Behavioral Responses to Energy Fiscal Policies," NBER Working Papers 24103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Kent M. Hymel & Kenneth Small, 2014. "The Rebound Effect for Automobile Travel:Asymmetric Response to Price Changes and Novel Features of the 2000s," Working Papers 141503, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    18. Arunanondchai, Panit & Senia, Mark C. & Capps, Oral Jr, 2017. "Can U.S. EIA Retail Gasoline Price Forecasts Be Improved Upon?," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252717, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Sébastien Houde, 2014. "How Consumers Respond to Environmental Certification and the Value of Energy Information," NBER Working Papers 20019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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