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Testing the efficiency of the Norwegian housing market

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  • Røed Larsen, Erling
  • Weum, Steffen

Abstract

The question of whether or not the housing market is efficient is posed by an increasing number of economists, policymakers, homebuyers, and homesellers. This article tests the efficiency hypothesis on data from the housing market in Oslo over the period 1991-2002, employing the Case-Shiller time-structure test on a repeat-sales house price index and returns to housing. We demonstrate that both the repeat-sales house price index and returns contain time structure and that the housing market is characterized by inefficiencies. We also find, surprisingly, that the housing market consistently yields higher appreciation at lower volatility than the stock market over the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Røed Larsen, Erling & Weum, Steffen, 2008. "Testing the efficiency of the Norwegian housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 510-517, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:64:y:2008:i:2:p:510-517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
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    5. Englund, Peter & Gordon, Tracy M. & Quigley, John M., 1999. "The Valuation of Real Capital: A Random Walk down Kungsgatan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-216, September.
    6. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 1999. "Residential Buildings And The Cost Of Construction: New Evidence On The Efficiency Of The Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 288-302, May.
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    8. repec:arz:wpaper:eres1999-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dombrow, Jonathan & Knight, J R & Sirmans, C F, 1997. "Aggregation Bias in Repeat-Sales Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 75-88, Jan.-Marc.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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    12. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring.
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    14. Dag Sommervoll, 2006. "Temporal Aggregation in Repeated Sales Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 151-165, September.
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    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2012. "Regional differences in housing price dynamics: panel data evidence," ERES eres2012_059, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2011. "Is there an equilibrating relationship between house prices and replacement cost? Empirical evidence from Berlin," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 288-302, May.
    3. Hiebert, Paul & Sydow, Matthias, 2011. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend–discount model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 88-98.
    4. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    5. Silje Eretveit & Theis Theisen, 2016. "Efficiency and Justice in the Market for Cooperative Dwellings," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 297-326.
    6. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2009. "Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2150-2163, November.
    7. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    8. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Ferando Perez de Gracia, 2014. "Persistence, Mean Reversion and Non-Linearities in US Housing Prices Over 1830-2013," Working Papers 201450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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