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Testing the efficiency of the Norwegian housing market

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  • Røed Larsen, Erling
  • Weum, Steffen

Abstract

The question of whether or not the housing market is efficient is posed by an increasing number of economists, policymakers, homebuyers, and homesellers. This article tests the efficiency hypothesis on data from the housing market in Oslo over the period 1991-2002, employing the Case-Shiller time-structure test on a repeat-sales house price index and returns to housing. We demonstrate that both the repeat-sales house price index and returns contain time structure and that the housing market is characterized by inefficiencies. We also find, surprisingly, that the housing market consistently yields higher appreciation at lower volatility than the stock market over the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Røed Larsen, Erling & Weum, Steffen, 2008. "Testing the efficiency of the Norwegian housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 510-517, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:64:y:2008:i:2:p:510-517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2012. "Regional differences in housing price dynamics: panel data evidence," ERES eres2012_059, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2011. "Is there an equilibrating relationship between house prices and replacement cost? Empirical evidence from Berlin," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 288-302, May.
    3. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    4. Hiebert, Paul & Sydow, Matthias, 2011. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend–discount model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 88-98.
    5. Wen-Yuan Lin & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Asymmetric Fluctuating Behavior of China's Housing Prices," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 107-126, March.
    6. Oikarinen, Elias & Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Engblom, Janne, 2018. "U.S. metropolitan house price dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 54-69.
    7. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    8. Highfill Jannett, 2008. "The Economic Crisis as of December 2008: The Global Economy Journal Weighs In," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-7, December.
    9. Daniel Levy & Avichai Snir, 2018. "Here Lives a Wealthy Man: Price Rigidity and Predictability in Luxury Housing Markets," Working Paper series 18-16, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    10. Silje Eretveit & Theis Theisen, 2016. "Efficiency and Justice in the Market for Cooperative Dwellings," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 297-326.
    11. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2016. "Differences in housing price dynamics across cities: A comparison of different panel model specifications," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(11), pages 2312-2329, August.
    12. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2016. "Persistence, mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830--2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(34), pages 3244-3252, July.
    13. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2009. "Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2150-2163, November.
    14. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    15. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    16. Mishra, Tapas & Park, Donghyun & Parhi, Mamata & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Tian, Shu, 2023. "A memory in the bond: Green bond and sectoral investment interdependence in a fractionally cointegrated VAR framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    17. Elias Oikarinen, 2010. "Momentum and mean reversion in regional housing markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Discussion Papers 61, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    18. Diego Ardila & Dorsa Sanadgol & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 613-631, April.

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