IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/36020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing weak-form efficiency of exchange traded funds market

Author

Listed:
  • Rompotis, Gerasimos G.

Abstract

In this paper we assess the weak-form efficiency of Exchange Traded Funds market applying various parametric and non-parametric tests. The parametric tests performed concern serial correlation tests and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test while the nonparametric tests used is the Phillips-Peron (PP) unit root test. To assess ETF market efficiency, we employ full daily return historical data of a sample of 66 equity-linked ETFs traded in the U.S. stock over the period 2001-2010. The performed tests provide evidence on the fact that the efficient market hypothesis holds in the ETF market. In particular, the majority of serial correlation tests show the lack of such an issue in the time series of ETF returns, which is a prerequisite in order for the efficient market hypothesis to be verified. Moreover, both the parametric and non-parametric unit root tests adopted reveal the non-existence of such an issue with respect to the pricing of ETFs and, therefore, the weakform of the efficient market hypothesis seems not to be infringed in the U.S. ETF market.

Suggested Citation

  • Rompotis, Gerasimos G., 2011. "Testing weak-form efficiency of exchange traded funds market," MPRA Paper 36020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36020/1/MPRA_paper_36020.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    2. Jensen, Michael C, 1969. "Risk, The Pricing of Capital Assets, and the Evaluation of Investment Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 167-247, April.
    3. William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119-119.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    5. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    7. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Twm Evans, 2006. "Efficiency tests of the UK financial futures markets and the impact of electronic trading systems," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1273-1283.
    10. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    13. Chance, Don M. & Hemler, Michael L., 2001. "The performance of professional market timers: daily evidence from executed strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 377-411, November.
    14. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    15. Hudson, Robert & Dempsey, Michael & Keasey, Kevin, 1996. "A note on the weak form efficiency of capital markets: The application of simple technical trading rules to UK stock prices - 1935 to 1994," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1121-1132, July.
    16. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1996. "Market timing ability and volatility implied in investment newsletters' asset allocation recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 397-421, November.
    17. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1770, August.
    18. Jay Squalli, 2006. "A non-parametric assessment of weak-form efficiency in the UAE financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1365-1373.
    19. Elton, Edwin J, et al, 1993. "Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22.
    20. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    21. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "Evaluating Financial Development In Emerging Capital Markets With Efficiency Benchmarks," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 17-44, June.
    22. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    23. Chang, Eric C & Lewellen, Wilbur G, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Investment Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 57-72, January.
    24. Butler, Kirt C. & Malaikah, S. J., 1992. "Efficiency and inefficiency in thinly traded stock markets: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 197-210, February.
    25. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    26. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    27. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    28. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    29. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Jeffrey A. Busse, 2001. "On the Timing Ability of Mutual Fund Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1075-1094, June.
    30. Mohammed Omran & Suzanne V. Farrar, 2006. "Tests of weak form efficiency in the Middle East emerging markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 23(1), pages 13-26, March.
    31. Hendricks, Darryll & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1993. "Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 93-130, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT, 2022. "Testing the weak form efficiency of the French ETF market with the LSTAR-ANLSTGARCH approach using a semiparametric estimation," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13, pages 228-253, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    2. Michael Heinrich Baumann, 2022. "Beating the market? A mathematical puzzle for market efficiency," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 45(1), pages 279-325, June.
    3. Akber, Ushna & Muhammad, Nabeel, 2013. "Is Pakistan Stock Market moving towards Weak-form efficiency? Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of free-float of shares of KSE 30 Index," MPRA Paper 49128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
    5. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    6. Anjum, Sohail & Qayyum, Unbreen & Qureshi, Madeeha Gohar, 2019. "Aggregate performance evaluation of US Equity Mutual Funds - Explaining the performance of Growth Funds vs. Value Funds," MPRA Paper 100043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Majumder, Debasish, 2013. "Towards an efficient stock market: Empirical evidence from the Indian market," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 572-587.
    8. Chen, Li-Wen & Adams, Andrew & Taffler, Richard, 2013. "What style-timing skills do mutual fund “stars” possess?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 156-173.
    9. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    10. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2013. "Corporate campaign contributions and abnormal stock returns after presidential elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 285-307, July.
    11. Roscoe, Philip & Howorth, Carole, 2009. "Identification through technical analysis: A study of charting and UK non-professional investors," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 206-221, February.
    12. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    13. Asif, Raheel & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Testing Long memory in exchange rates and its implications for the adaptive market hypothesis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
    14. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2010. "An empirical investigation of the informational efficiency of the GCC equity markets: Evidence from bootstrap simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-54, January.
    15. Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Market Timing with Moving Averages," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-25, June.
    16. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta & Boubaker, Sabri & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "The short-term persistence of international mutual fund performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 926-938.
    17. Ilomäki, J. & Laurila, H. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Simple Market Timing with Moving Averages," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    18. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    19. Kamal, Mona, 2014. "Studying the Validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) after the 25th of January Revolution," MPRA Paper 54708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ushna Akber & Nabeel Muhammad, 2014. "Is Pakistan Stock Market Moving towards Weak-Form Efficiency? Evidence from The Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of Free-Float of Shares of KSE 30 Index," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(6), pages 808-836, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ETFs; Market efficiency; Weak-forms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.