IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v52y2016ipbp926-938.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The short-term persistence of international mutual fund performance

Author

Listed:
  • Vidal-García, Javier
  • Vidal, Marta
  • Boubaker, Sabri
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah

Abstract

This paper examines the short-term persistence in performance of equity mutual funds around the world between 1990 and 2013. Using a large survivorship bias-free sample of 35 countries, we document strong evidence of persistence in daily mutual fund returns over quarterly measurement periods. We rank countries by abnormal return and estimate the performance of each country for the following quarter. We find statistically and economically significant performance persistence that is more pronounced for the top and bottom countries. The post-ranking abnormal return disappears when performance is examined over longer time periods. Thus, our results confirm that superior performance is a short-lived phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta & Boubaker, Sabri & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "The short-term persistence of international mutual fund performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 926-938.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:52:y:2016:i:pb:p:926-938
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315003272
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vidal, Marta & Vidal-García, Javier & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2015. "The relation between fees and return predictability in the mutual fund industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 260-270.
    2. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    3. Roger Otten & Dennis Bams, 2002. "European Mutual Fund Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 75-101, March.
    4. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    5. Diane Del Guercio & Jonathan Reuter, 2014. "Mutual Fund Performance and the Incentive to Generate Alpha," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1673-1704, August.
    6. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1996. "Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1097-1120.
    7. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 699-726.
    8. Jeffrey A. Busse & Amit Goyal & Sunil Wahal, 2010. "Performance and Persistence in Institutional Investment Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 765-790, April.
    9. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
    10. Elton, Edwin J, et al, 1993. "Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N, 1995. "Performance Persistence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 679-698, June.
    12. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1992. "The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1977-1984, December.
    13. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2013. "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3878-3889.
    14. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & K.P, Prabheesh, 2014. "Stock returns, mutual fund flows and spillover shocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 146-162.
    16. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    17. Nicolas P. B. Bollen, 2005. "Short-Term Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 569-597.
    18. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    19. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Does data frequency matter for the impact of forward premium on spot exchange rate?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 45-53.
    20. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995. "Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 549-572, June.
    21. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December.
    22. Ian Tonks, 2005. "Performance Persistence of Pension-Fund Managers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1917-1942, September.
    23. Nain, Amrita & Yao, Tong, 2013. "Mutual fund skill and the performance of corporate acquirers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 437-456.
    24. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    25. Joakim Westerlund & Milda Norkute & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2015. "A Factor Analytical Approach to the Efficient Futures Market Hypothesis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 357-370, April.
    26. Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996. "Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-461, June.
    27. Vidal-García, Javier, 2013. "The persistence of European mutual fund performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 45-67.
    28. Coggin, T Daniel & Fabozzi, Frank J & Rahman, Shafiqur, 1993. "The Investment Performance of U.S. Equity Pension Fund Managers: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 1039-1055, July.
    29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    30. Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006. "Can Mutual Fund “Stars” Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December.
    31. Javier Vidal-García & Marta Vidal & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2016. "Do liquidity and idiosyncratic risk matter? Evidence from the European mutual fund market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 213-247, August.
    32. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    33. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    34. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-580.
    35. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Jeffrey A. Busse, 2001. "On the Timing Ability of Mutual Fund Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1075-1094, June.
    36. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    37. Javier Vidal-Garcia & Marta Vidal & Sabri Boubaker, 2015. "Market Timing around the World," Post-Print hal-01158091, HAL.
    38. Hendricks, Darryll & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1993. "Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 93-130, March.
    39. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1996. "The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(2), pages 133-157, April.
    40. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fiza Qureshi & Ali M. Kutan & Habib Hussain Khan & Saba Qureshi, 2019. "Equity fund flows, market returns, and market risk: evidence from China," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(1), pages 48-71, March.
    2. Javier Vidal-García & Marta Vidal & Sabri Boubaker & Riadh Manita, 2019. "Idiosyncratic risk and mutual fund performance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 349-372, October.
    3. Hammouda, Amira & Saeed, Asif & Vidal, Marta & Vidal-García, Javier, 2023. "On the short-term persistence of mutual fund performance in Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Sanaullah & Muhammad Shahbaz Khan & Dr. Amna Noor & Salleh Khan, 2021. "An Investigation of Market Timing Ability of Mutual Fund Managers in Pakistan," iRASD Journal of Management, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(1), pages 56-68, june.
    5. Martí-Ballester, Carmen-Pilar, 2019. "Do European renewable energy mutual funds foster the transition to a low-carbon economy?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1299-1309.
    6. Buschong, René, 2022. "Financial Literacy is associated with Stock Market Expectations but not with Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from Germany," EconStor Preprints 266404, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Pandow, Bilal, 2017. "Persistent Performance of Fund Managers: An analysis of selection and timing skills," MPRA Paper 82975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Coudert, Virginie & Salakhova, Dilyara, 2020. "Do mutual fund flows affect the French corporate bond market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 496-510.
    9. Javier Vidal-García & Marta Vidal & Sabri Boubaker & Majdi Hassan, 2018. "The efficiency of mutual funds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 555-584, August.
    10. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Guanying & Wang, Xingchun & Xiong, Xiong & Lei, Xuan, 2018. "Profitability of reversal strategies: A modified version of the Carhart model in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 26-37.
    11. Hammami, Yacine & Oueslati, Abdelmonem, 2017. "Measuring skill in the Islamic mutual fund industry: Evidence from GCC countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 15-31.
    12. Leonardo Badea & Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Iulian Panait & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "A Markov Regime Switching Approach towards Assessing Resilience of Romanian Collective Investment Undertakings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Xu, Bingrun, 2016. "Managerial attributes and equity mutual fund performance: evidence from china," MPRA Paper 76139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Zhang, Jinhua & Wang, Guipu & Yan, Cheng, 2020. "Can foreign equity funds outperform their benchmarks? New evidence from fund-holding data for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 11-20.
    15. Sha, Yezhou, 2020. "The devil in the style: Mutual fund style drift, performance and common risk factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-273.
    16. Roongkiat Ratanabanchuen & Kanis Saengchote, 2018. "Chasing Returns with High-Beta Stocks," PIER Discussion Papers 96, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Oberholzer Merwe & Omotoso Matthew Olubayo & Schutte Danie & Buys Pieter, 2022. "The Relative Success of IFRS Adopted African Countries to Attract Foreign Investment," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 67(1), pages 44-62, April.
    18. Parida, Sitikantha & Tang, Zhenyang, 2018. "Price competition in the mutual fund industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 29-39.
    19. Yundan Guo & Li Shen, 2023. "Commercial Retirement FOFs in China: Investment and Persistence Performance Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-22, September.
    20. Diego Víctor de Mingo-López & Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Huseyin Ozturk & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2023. "Persistence versus mobility of sociallyresponsible funds: intra-distribution dynamics and mobility trends," Working Papers 2023/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    21. El Ammari, Anis & Vidal, Marta & Vidal-García, Javier, 2023. "European market timing," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    22. Božović, Miloš, 2022. "Recent evidence on the short-term and long-term performance persistence of emerging-market mutual fund returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hammouda, Amira & Saeed, Asif & Vidal, Marta & Vidal-García, Javier, 2023. "On the short-term persistence of mutual fund performance in Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Soler-Domínguez, Amparo & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 192-231.
    3. Vidal-García, Javier, 2013. "The persistence of European mutual fund performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 45-67.
    4. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 2013. "Mutual Funds," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1011-1061, Elsevier.
    5. Omneya Abdelsalam & Meryem Duygun & Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Is Ethical Money Sensitive to Past Returns? The Case of Portfolio Constraints and Persistence of Islamic and Socially Responsible Funds," Working Papers 2014/19, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    6. Wolfgang Bessler & Thomas Conlon & Diego Víctor de Mingo‐López & Juan Carlos Matallín‐Sáez, 2022. "Mutual fund performance and changes in factor exposure," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 17-52, March.
    7. Gallefoss, Kristoffer & Hansen, Helge Hoff & Haukaas, Eirik Solli & Molnár, Peter, 2015. "What daily data can tell us about mutual funds: Evidence from Norway," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 117-129.
    8. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2008. "UK mutual fund performance: Skill or luck?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 613-634, September.
    9. Pankaj K. Agarwal & H. K. Pradhan, 2018. "Mutual Fund Performance Using Unconditional Multifactor Models: Evidence from India," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 157-184, August.
    10. Javier Vidal-García & Marta Vidal & Sabri Boubaker & Majdi Hassan, 2018. "The efficiency of mutual funds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 555-584, August.
    11. Dong‐Hyun Ahn & H. Henry Cao & Stéphane Chrétien, 2009. "Portfolio Performance Measurement: a No Arbitrage Bounds Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(2), pages 298-339, March.
    12. Angelidis, Timotheos & Giamouridis, Daniel & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Revisiting mutual fund performance evaluation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1759-1776.
    13. Huij, Joop & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Cross-sectional learning and short-run persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 973-997, March.
    14. Omneya Abdelsalam & Meryem Duygun & Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2017. "Is Ethical Money Sensitive to Past Returns? The Case of Portfolio Constraints and Persistence in Islamic Funds," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 363-384, June.
    15. Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January.
    16. Anjum, Sohail & Qayyum, Unbreen & Qureshi, Madeeha Gohar, 2019. "Aggregate performance evaluation of US Equity Mutual Funds - Explaining the performance of Growth Funds vs. Value Funds," MPRA Paper 100043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Andrew Clare & Mariana Clare, 2019. "An examination of ex ante fund performance: identifying indicators of future performance," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 175-195, May.
    18. Yee Loon, 2011. "Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-205, February.
    19. Fletcher, Jonathan & Forbes, David, 2002. "An exploration of the persistence of UK unit trust performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 475-493, December.
    20. Deaves, Richard, 2004. "Data-conditioning biases, performance, persistence and flows: The case of Canadian equity funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 673-694, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:52:y:2016:i:pb:p:926-938. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.