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The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets

Author

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  • Banegas, Ayelen
  • Gillen, Ben
  • Timmermann, Allan
  • Wermers, Russ

Abstract

This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance and that country-specific mutual funds provide the best opportunities for fund rotation strategies using macroeconomic information. Specifically, our baseline long-only strategies that exploit time-varying predictability provide four-factor alphas of 12–13% per year over the 1993–2008 period. Our study provides new evidence on the skills of local versus Pan-European asset managers, as well as how macroeconomic information can be used to locate and time these local fund manager skills.

Suggested Citation

  • Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 699-726.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:108:y:2013:i:3:p:699-726
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.01.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Babalos, Vassilios & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Philippas, Nikolaos, 2015. "Gender, style diversity, and their effect on fund performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 57-74.
    2. Angelidis, Timotheos & Giamouridis, Daniel & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Revisiting mutual fund performance evaluation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1759-1776.
    3. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
    4. Leite, Paulo & Cortez, Maria Céu, 2014. "Style and performance of international socially responsible funds in Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 248-267.
    5. Giacomini, Raffaella, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 10201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Leite, Paulo & Cortez, Maria Céu, 2015. "Performance of European socially responsible funds during market crises: Evidence from France," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 132-141.
    7. Reboredo, Juan C. & Quintela, Miguel & Otero, Luis A., 2017. "Do investors pay a premium for going green? Evidence from alternative energy mutual funds," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 512-520.
    8. Rossi, Alberto G. & Blake, David & Timmermann, Allan & Tonks, Ian & Wermers, Russ, 2015. "Network centrality and pension fund performance," CFR Working Papers 15-16, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta & Boubaker, Sabri & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "The short-term persistence of international mutual fund performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 926-938.
    10. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Joenväärä, Juha & Kosowski, Robert, 2015. "Effect of Regulatory Constraints on Fund Performance: New Evidence from UCITS Hedge Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 10577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Groenborg, Niels & Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G & Wermers, Russ, 2017. "Picking Funds with Confidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 11896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Veasna Khim & Hery Razafitombo, 2015. "The Impact of UCITS IV Directive on European Mutual Funds Performance," Post-Print hal-01698550, HAL.
    14. Gillen, Benjamin J., 2014. "An empirical Bayesian approach to stein-optimal covariance matrix estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 402-420.
    15. Fletcher, Jonathan & Basu, Devraj, 2016. "An examination of the benefits of dynamic trading strategies in U.K. closed-end funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 109-118.
    16. Niels S. Grønborg & Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers, 1303. "Picking Funds with Confidence," CREATES Research Papers 2017-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Breloer, Bernhard & Scholz, Hendrik & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Performance of international and global equity mutual funds: Do country momentum and sector momentum matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 58-77.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European equity markets; Mutual fund performance; Time-varying investment opportunities;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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