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Heterogeneous housing bubbles and monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Duan, Kun
  • Zhang, Liya
  • Chen, Shuyun
  • Urquhart, Andrew

Abstract

This paper isolates rational and naive bubbles within a unified framework allowing bounded rationality, and studies how monetary policy surprises affect these bubbles’ characteristics differently. Employing a comprehensive dataset in urban China, our results demonstrate that both the magnitude and type of housing bubbles evolve across locations over time. Tightening monetary policy is found to exert a containing role in rational bubble dynamics but its role in naive bubbles is less significant. Our results confirm the effectiveness of contractionary monetary policy and home purchase restrictions in combating China’s housing bubbles thanks to the nationwide dominance of a rational bubble type.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Kun & Zhang, Liya & Chen, Shuyun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2025. "Heterogeneous housing bubbles and monetary policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:103:y:2025:i:c:s1057521925001668
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104079
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational bubble; Naive bubble; Monetary policy; Fractional integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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