A New Hedonic Regression for Real Estate Prices Applied to the Singapore Residential Market
This paper develops a new hedonic method for constructing a real estate price index that utilizes all transaction price information that encompasses both single-sale and repeat-sale properties. The new method is less prone to specification errors than standard hedonic methods and uses all available data. Like the Case-Shiller repeat-sales method, the new method has the advantage of being computationally efficient. In an empirical analysis of the methodology, we fit the model to all transaction prices for private residential property holdings in Singapore between Q1 1995 and Q2 2014, covering several periods of major price fluctuation and changes in government macroprudential policy. Two new indices are created, one from all transaction prices and one from single-sales prices. The indices are compared with the S&P/Case-Shiller index. The result shows that the new indices slightly outperform the S&P/Case-Shiller index in predicting the price of single-sales homes out-of-sample. However, they underperform the S&P/Case-Shiller index in predicting the price of repeat-sales homes out-of-sample. The empirical findings indicate that specification bias can be more substantial than the sample selection bias when constructing a real estate price index. In a further empirical application, the recursive method of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2014) is used to detect explosive periods in real estate prices of Singapore. The results confirm the existence of an explosive period from Q4 2006 to Q1 2008. No explosive period is found after 2009, suggesting that the ten successive rounds of cooling measures implemented by the Singapore government have been effective in changing price dynamics and preventing a subsequent outbreak of explosive behavior in the Singapore real estate market.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
- Min Hwang & John Quigley, 2010.
"Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 3-23, July.
- Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2010. "Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt41k6c76w, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Bradford Case & Henry O. Pollakowski & Susan M. Wachter, 1991. "On Choosing Among House Price Index Methodologies," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 286-307.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities," NBER Working Papers 2393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 851, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- R. Carter Hill & J. R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans, 1997. "Estimating Capital Asset Price Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 226-233, May.
- Guo, Xiaoyang & Zheng, Siqi & Geltner, David & Liu, Hongyu, 2014. "A new approach for constructing home price indices: The pseudo repeat sales model and its application in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 20-38.
- Englund, Peter & Quigley, John M. & Redfearn, Christian L., 1998. "Improved Price Indexes for Real Estate: Measuring the Course of Swedish Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 171-196, September.
- Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
- Sing, Tien Foo, 2001. "Dynamics of the Condominium Market in Singapore," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 4(1), pages 135-158.
- Hill, R. Carter & Sirmans, C. F. & Knight, John R., 1999. "A random walk down main street?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 89-103, January.
- John M. Clapp & Carmelo Giaccotto & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 1991. "Housing Price Indices Based on All Transactions Compared to Repeat Subsamples," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 270-285.
- Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew C. Regan)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.