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Empirical Tests of Real Estate Market Efficiency

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  • Guntermann, Karl L
  • Norrbin, Stefan C

Abstract

Recent empirical research using real estate data has supported the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient markets hypothesis. Previous studies have not included an estimate of expected appreciation into the tests of market efficiency, thus raising a question about the reliability of the results. We first use a market model to test for market efficiency with results similar to those reported by others. We next use a dynamic mulitiple indicator, multiple cause (DYMIMIC) model, which extracts a vector of expected appreciation from the price data, to test market efficiency. This approach produces superior results and a stronger conclusion about the efficiency of housing markets. The results indicate limited adjustment delays which can be explained by the existence of high transactions and search costs. Copyright 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Guntermann, Karl L & Norrbin, Stefan C, 1991. "Empirical Tests of Real Estate Market Efficiency," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 297-313, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:4:y:1991:i:3:p:297-313
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    Cited by:

    1. Maier, Gunther & Herath, Shanaka, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency. A Survey of Literature," SRE-Discussion Papers 402, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Ioannides, Yannis M. & (Wirathip) Thanapisitikul, Win, 2016. "Spatial effects and house price dynamics in the USA," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2006. "Efficiency In Housing Markets: Do Home Buyers Know How To Discount?," Working Papers in Economics 232, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Min Hwang & John Quigley, 2010. "Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 3-23, July.
    5. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2009. "Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2150-2163, November.
    6. Kicki Björklund & Bo Söderberg, 1999. "Property Cycles, Speculative Bubbles and the Gross Income Multiplier," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 151-174.
    7. Paschalis Arvanitidis, 2006. "Property Market Purpose Efficiency: An Exploratory Analysis From an Institutional Economics Perspective," ERSA conference papers ersa06p567, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    9. Dirk Kiesewetter & Kristin Schönemann, 2011. "Der Einfluss von Steuern und Subventionen auf die Rendite fremd‐ und selbst genutzter Wohnimmobilien in Deutschland," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 104-131, May.

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