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Hedging Housing Risk

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  • Englund, Peter
  • Hwang, Min
  • Quigley, John M.

Abstract

An unusually rich source of data on housing prices in Stockholm is used to analyze the investment implications of housing choices. This empirical analysis derives market-wide price and return series for housing investment during a 13-year period, and it also provides estimates of the individual-speci®c, idiosyncratic, variation in housing returns. Because the idiosyncratic component follows an autocorrelated process, the analysis of portfolio choice is dependent upon the holding period. We analyze the composition of household investment portfolios containing housing, common stocks, stocks in real estate holding companies, bonds, and t-bills. For short holding periods, the ef®cient portfolio contains essentially no housing. For longer periods, low-risk portfolios contain 15 to 50 percent housing. These results suggest that there are large potential gains from policies or institutions that would permit households to hedge their lumpy investments in housing. We estimate the potential value of hedges in reducing risk to households, yet yielding the same investment returns. The value is surprisingly large, especially to poorer homeowners.

Suggested Citation

  • Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt06t5d6v0, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:bphupl:qt06t5d6v0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Englund, Peter & Quigley, John M. & Redfearn, Christian L., 1998. "Improved Price Indexes for Real Estate: Measuring the Course of Swedish Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 171-196, September.
    2. repec:cdl:ucsdec:qt89x293v9 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273, September.
    4. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
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    6. Rosen, Harvey S & Rosen, Kenneth T & Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1984. "Housing Tenure, Uncertainty, and Taxation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 405-416, August.
    7. Tracy M. Turner, 2003. "Does Investment Risk Affect the Housing Decisions of Families?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 675-691, October.
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