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Consumer Credit Delinquency And Bankruptcy Forecasting Using Advanced Econometrc Modeling

  • Ji, Tingting
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    This research paper empirically shows that unemployment is significant in determining both consumer bankruptcy filings and delinquency even after controlling for household demographics. Furthermore, I show that unemployment and the debt/wealth ratio also affect the choice of whether to file for bankruptcy under chapter 7 or chapter 13, after controlling for demographics. The paper then points out some of the implications the empirical results have for policy-makers and banking regulators.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3187/1/MPRA_paper_3187.pdf
    File Function: original version
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3187.

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    Date of creation: 30 Oct 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3187
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    7. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio Over the Life-Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Lawrance, Emily C, 1995. "Consumer Default and the Life Cycle Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 939-54, November.
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    18. Kennickell, Arthur B & Starr-McCluer, Martha, 1997. "Household Saving and Portfolio Change: Evidence from the 1983-89 SCF Panel," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 43(4), pages 381-99, December.
    19. Wang, H.J. & White, M., 1998. "An Optimal Personal Bankruptcy Procedure and Proposed Reform," Papers 98-07, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    20. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    21. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, 06.
    22. Ian Domowitz & Robert L. Sartain, 1999. "Determinants of the Consumer Bankruptcy Decision," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 403-420, 02.
    23. Donald Cox & Tullio Japelli, 1993. "The Effect Of Borrowing Constraints On Consumer Liabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 228, Boston College Department of Economics.
    24. Jappelli, Tullio, 1990. "Who Is Credit Constrained in the U.S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-34, February.
    25. Goetzmann, W.N., 1990. "The Single Family Home In The Investment Portfolio," Papers fb-_90-15, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    26. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
    27. Brueckner, Jan K, 1997. "Consumption and Investment Motives and the Portfolio Choices of Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 159-80, October.
    28. Carol Bertaut & Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "Household portfolios in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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