IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate




Most institutional and individual portfolios are very undiversified in real estate: many hold no real estate at all, many have holdings highly concentrated in certain regions or types of real estate. The risk of these concentrated holdings is not hedged. We propose here that cash-settled futures and options markets be opened on real estate to better allow diversification and hedging, and show that these markets solve problems that have hampered other real estate hedging media in the past. Related institutions, such as home equity insurance, might develop around the futures and options markets. The establishment of these markets is likely to increase the quantity of reproducible real estate, and lower rents on real estate. It may also reduce the amplitude of speculative real estate price movements and dampen the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1991. "Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1006

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Brian R. Horrigan, 1987. "The CPI futures market: the inflation hedge that won't grow," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-14.
    2. Anne E. Peck, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(3), pages 407-423.
    3. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    4. Kenneth D. Carbade & William L. Silber, 1983. "Cash settlement of futures contracts: An economic analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 451-472, December.
    5. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    6. Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-1237, December.
    7. Karl E. Case, 1986. "The market for single-family homes in the Boston area," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 38-48.
    8. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    9. Gorton, Gary B & Pennacchi, George G, 1993. "Security Baskets and Index-Linked Securities," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(1), pages 1-27, January.
    10. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-1387, September.
    11. Lovell, Michael C & Vogel, Robert C, 1973. "A CPI-Futures Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1009-1012, July-Aug..
    12. Powers, Mark J, 1970. "Does Futures Trading Reduce Price Fluctuations in the Cash Markets?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 460-464, June.
    13. Harold Demsetz, 1968. "The Cost of Transacting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 33-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Iacoviello, Matteo & Ortalo-Magne, Francois, 2003. "Hedging Housing Risk in London," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 191-209, September.
    2. Nicolas R Blancher & François Haas & John Kiff & Oksana Khadarina & Paul S. Mills & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & William Lee & Yoon Sook Kim & Todd Groome & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2006. "The Limits of Market-Based Risk Transfer and Implications for Managing Systemic Risks," IMF Working Papers 06/217, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 2000. "Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-31.
    4. Shiller, Robert J., 1995. "Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 119-152.
    5. Luttmer, Erzo F. P. & Zeckhauser, Richard & Kousky, Carolyn, 2006. "Permits to Elicit Information," Working Paper Series rwp06-049, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    6. Abel Cadenillas & Robert Elliott & Hong Miao & Zhenyu Wu, 2009. "Risk-Hedging in Real Estate Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(4), pages 265-285, December.
    7. Shiller, Robert J, 1993. " Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 911-931, July.
    8. M.I. Dröes & H Garretsen & W.J.J. Manshanden, 2012. "The Diversification Benefits of Free Trade in House Value," Working Papers 12-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
    9. Robert Buckley & Gulmira Karaguishiyeva & Robert Order & Laura Vecvagare, 2006. "Mortgage credit risk in EU countries: Constraints on exploiting the single currency market," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 13-27, January.
    10. Shiller, Robert J & Weiss, Allan N, 1999. "Home Equity Insurance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-47, July.
    11. Rady, Sven & Ortalo-Magné, François, 2002. "Homeownership," Discussion Papers in Economics 28, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. Dröes, Martijn I. & Hassink, Wolter H.J., 2013. "House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 92-99.
    13. Buckley, Robert & Karaguishiyeva, Gulmira & Van Order, Robert & Vecvagare, Laura, 2003. "Comparing mortgage credit risk policies : an options-based approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3047, The World Bank.
    14. Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case & Allan N. Weiss, 1995. "Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1098, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M, 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-200, Jan.-Marc.
    16. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2004. "Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide Overview," NBER Working Papers 10602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Christoph Hinkelmann & Steve Swidler, 2008. "Trading House Price Risk with Existing Futures Contracts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 37-52, January.
    18. Steven Sheffrin & Tracy Turner, 2001. "Taxation and House-Price Uncertainty: Some Empirical Estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 621-636, August.

    More about this item


    Real estate; prices; portfolio choice;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew Regan). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.