Spill Over Effects of Futures Contracts Initiation on the Cash Market: A Comparative Analysis
This paper investigates possible spill over effects on the Spot Market due to the initiation of Futures contracts in three different financial markets. According to many analysts there still exists a puzzle regarding the stabilization or destabilization effects of futures contracts. Although the speculative forces (uninformed investors) tend to destabilize the market, rational hedging strategies and the transition of risk allow for stabilization shift. In order to investigate this issue, many researchers during the last decade, have utilized the GARCH framework enriched to capture many stylized financial features, such as the asymmetric response to news and leptokurtosis. However, in this paper the GARCH framework is extended to allow for skewness in the distribution of returns and to examine the timing of possible structural changes, while the conditional mean of the process is adjusted to account for time-varying risk premia and for the day of the week effects decomposition. Furthermore, the distinguishing feature of this paper is the SWARCH econometric model, which enables a dynamic regime shifting through a Markov Chain transition matrix. According to the empirical findings for the UK, Spanish and Greek Capital markets, there exist a significant stabilization effect either in the long run or in the short run, which is negatively associated with the level of efficiency and completeness of these capital markets.
|Date of creation:||26 Nov 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Markus Haas, 2004. "A New Approach to Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 493-530.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Figlewski, Stephen, 1981. "Futures Trading and Volatility in the GNMA Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 445-56, May.
- Robert C. Merton, 1995.
"Financial Innovation and the Management and Regulation of Financial Institutions,"
NBER Working Papers
5096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Merton, Robert C., 1995. "Financial innovation and the management and regulation of financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 461-481, June.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Spyros I. Spyrou, 2005. "Index Futures Trading and Spot Price Volatility," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 4(2), pages 151-167, August.
- Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-37, December.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. " Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-34, December.
- Pierluigi Bologna & Laura Cavallo, 2002. "Does the introduction of stock index futures effectively reduce stock market volatility? Is the 'futures effect' immediate? Evidence from the Italian stock exchange using GARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 183-192.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.