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Does the introduction of stock index futures effectively reduce stock market volatility? Is the 'futures effect' immediate? Evidence from the Italian stock exchange using GARCH

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  • Pierluigi Bologna
  • Laura Cavallo

Abstract

The impact of futures trading on the underlying asset volatility, and its characteristics, is still debated both in the economic literature and among practitioners. The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of the introduction of stock index futures on the volatility of the Italian Stock Exchange. This study mainly addresses two issues: first, the study analyses whether the reduction of stock market volatility showed in the post-futures period, already pointed out in previous research, is effectively due to the introduction of futures contract. Second, whether the 'futures effect', if confirmed, is immediate or delayed with respect to the moment of the futures trading onset is tested. The results show that the introduction of stock index futures per se has led to diminished stock market volatility and no other contingent cause seems to have systematically reduced it. Further, they also suggest that the impact of futures onset on the underlying market volatility is likely to be immediate. These findings are consistent with those theories stating that active and developed futures markets enhance the efficiency of the corresponding spot markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierluigi Bologna & Laura Cavallo, 2002. "Does the introduction of stock index futures effectively reduce stock market volatility? Is the 'futures effect' immediate? Evidence from the Italian stock exchange using GARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 183-192.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:3:p:183-192 DOI: 10.1080/09603100110088085
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    Cited by:

    1. Arif Oduncu, 2011. "The Effects of Currency Futures Trading on Turkish Currency Market," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 5(1), pages 97-109.
    2. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Ioannis Koskosas & Nikos Kartalis & George Konteos, 2009. "Macroeconomic effects on D.J.S.I.-World Returns," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 2(2), pages 95-110, December.
    3. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    4. C. James Hueng, 2006. "Short-sales constraints and stock return asymmetry: evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 707-716.
    5. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2014. "Impact of uncertainty on high frequency response of the U.S. stock markets to the Fed's policy surprises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 382-392.
    6. Chevallier, Julien & Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 855-880.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2007:i:10:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lu, Xinsheng & Tian, Jie & Zhou, Ying & Li, Zhihui, 2013. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of the Chinese stock index futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1452-1458.
    9. Shaen Corbet & Cian Twomey, 2014. "Quantifying the Effects of the Inclusion and Segregation of Contracts for Difference in Australian Equity Markets," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 411-426.
    10. Dr. Dhanya Alex & Dr. Roshna Varghese, 2015. "Derivative Trading and Spot Market Volatility: Evidence from Indian Market," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 23-34, August.
    11. Karathanassis, George & Sogiakas, Vasilios, 2007. "Spill Over Effects of Futures Contracts Initiation on the Cash Market: A Comparative Analysis," MPRA Paper 5958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Shaen Corbet & Cian Twomey, 2014. "Have Exchange Traded Funds Influenced Commodity Market Volatility?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 323-335.
    13. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Evangelos Drimbetas, 2008. "Impact of international volatility and the introduction of Individual Stock Futures on the volatility of a small market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 119-119.
    14. Wagner, Helmut & Matanovic, Eva, 2012. "Volatility Impact of Stock Index Futures Trading - A Revised Analysis," MPRA Paper 51204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Evangelos Drimbetas & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Nicos Porfiris, 2007. "The effect of derivatives trading on volatility of the underlying asset: evidence from the Greek stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 139-148.
    16. Okur, Mustafa & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2013. "Testing intraday volatility spillovers in Turkish capital markets: evidence from ISE," MPRA Paper 71477, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    17. Kasman, Adnan & Kasman, Saadet, 2008. "The impact of futures trading on volatility of the underlying asset in the Turkish stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2837-2845.
    18. Shaen Corbet & Cian Twomey, 2014. "How Have Contracts for Difference Affected Irish Equity Market Volatility?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(4), pages 559-577.
    19. Xinsheng Lu & Jie Tian & Ying Zhou & Zhihui Li, 2012. "Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of the Chinese Stock Index Futures Market," Working Papers 2012-08, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.

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