IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/4196.html

Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91

Author

Listed:
  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Jesse M. Abraham

Abstract

Real metropolitan house prices have been quite volatile during the 1977-91 period, with half of our 30 areas having annual increases of above 15 percent in a single year and a third having decreases greater than 7.5 percent. Drawing on Capozza and Helsley's models of real land prices, we express real house price changes as a function of the rate of change in employment, real income growth, real construction cost inflation, and changes in real after-tax interest rates. Our explanatory power varies widely by region. We do quite well for the half of our cities in the more stable Upper Midwest and Southeast, less well for the coastal cities, and dismally for the two Texas cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Patric H. Hendershott & Jesse M. Abraham, 1992. "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91," NBER Working Papers 4196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4196
    Note: LE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4196.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The Measurement and Determinants of Single‐Family House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 353-382, September.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    4. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    5. Hendershott, Patric H., 1991. "Are real house prices likely to decline by 47 percent?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 553-563, December.
    6. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2019. "Modelling Housing Market Cycles in Global Cities," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201901, University of Turin.
    2. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Housing market cycles in large urban areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 257-267.
    3. Yan Song & Jiang Zhou & Yingjie Zhang & Dingxin Wu & Honghai Xu, 2022. "How Much Are Amenities Worth? An Empirical Study on Urban Land and Housing Price Differentials across Chinese Cities," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Factors Affecting Housing Prices: International Evidence," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 87-96, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard K. Green & Patric Hendershott, 1992. "Demographic Factors and Real House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 92-08, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    2. Donald Haurin & David Brasington, 1996. "The Impact of School Quality on Real House Prices: Interjurisdictional Effects," Working Papers 010, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
    4. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    5. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    6. Eichholtz, Piet & Lindenthal, Thies, 2014. "Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 19-32.
    7. Jakob B Madsen, 2011. "A q Model of House Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    8. Creina Day, 2018. "Australia's Growth in Households and House Prices," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(4), pages 502-511, December.
    9. Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Age, housing demand, and real house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August.
    10. Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1992. "Patterns and determinants of metropolitan house prices, 1977 to 1991," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 36, pages 18-56.
    11. Mario Fortin & André Leclerc, 2002. "Déterminants du prix réel des logements au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(3), pages 293-320.
    12. Day, Creina, 2019. "House prices post-GFC: More household debt for longer," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-102.
    13. Day, Creina & Guest, Ross, 2016. "Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-132.
    14. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2007. "House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 291-308, November.
    15. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    16. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Li, Pei, 2015. "Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-196.
    17. Visar Hoxha & Alenka Temeljotov Salaj, 2014. "Fundamental Economic Factors That Affect Housing Prices: Comparative Analysis between Kosovo and Slovenia," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
    18. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    19. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2008. "Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 117-137, June.
    20. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.