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Déterminants du prix réel des logements au Canada

Author

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  • Fortin, Mario

    (Département d’économique)

  • Leclerc, André

    (Secteur des sciences humaines)

Abstract

In order to identify the variables influencing the Canadian housing market, we estimate a structural model on annual data from 1956 to 2001. This model simultaneously explains the behaviour of the real average housing price and the change in the housing stock as measured by the number of housing units. Four variables are significant in the price equation: real per-capita income, nominal interest rate on residential 5-years mortgage loans, population growth in the 25 to 54 age group, and housing stock. As to the housing stock equation, the only significant variables are real housing price and changes in real per-capita income. The real price dropped during the recessions of 1981-82 and 1990-92 and remained low during the rest of the 90s. The stagnation of the housing market observed during the last decade resulted from a slower population growth and a sluggish economy. The only favourable impact came from the drop in the interest rates. The model’s price forecasts for the next fifteen years do not encompass price decreases because the trend increase in real income will more than offset the impact of the slower population growth. Afin d’identifier quelles variables ont affecté l’équilibre du marché du logement au Canada, nous estimons un modèle structurel sur des données annuelles agrégées de 1956 à 2001. Le modèle permet d’expliquer l’évolution du prix moyen et du nombre d’unités de logement. Trois variables exercent une influence significative sur le prix réel, soit le revenu réel par personne adulte, le taux d’intérêt nominal sur les prêts hypothécaires à l’habitation à 5 ans et la croissance de la population de 25 à 54 ans. Quant à la construction de nouveaux logements, la seule influence exogène provient du prix réel du logement. Le prix réel a fortement baissé pendant les récessions de 1981-82 et 1990-92 et s’est maintenu bas pendant tout le reste de la décennie quatre-vingt-dix. Le ralentissement de la croissance de la population a fortement contribué au marasme du marché immobilier pendant la dernière décennie, le ralentissement de la croissance du revenu réel par habitant jouant également un rôle important. Seule la baisse des taux d’intérêt a permis de maintenir un certain dynamisme sur ce marché pendant cette période. Les projections pour les quinze prochaines années ne laissent cependant pas entrevoir de baisses ultérieures de prix.

Suggested Citation

  • Fortin, Mario & Leclerc, André, 2002. "Déterminants du prix réel des logements au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(3), pages 293-320, Septembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:78:y:2002:i:3:p:293-320
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasmine Essafi & Raphaël Languillon & Arnaud Simon, 2017. "The Relation between Aging and Housing Prices A Key Indicator for the French Spatial Wealth Reshaping [La relation Vieillissement-Prix immobiliers : un indicateur clé pour la réorganisation spatial," Working Papers halshs-01654445, HAL.
    2. Mario Fortin, 2015. "Why has the mortgage debt increased by so much in Canada?," Cahiers de recherche 15-03, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.

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