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The Baby Boom, Housing and Loanable Funds

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  • Joyce Manchester

Abstract

This paper examines baby boom effects in a simple three-period overlapping generations model in which equilibrium must be maintained in the housing market, as well as in the loanable funds market. All agents must buy a house financed by an adjustable-rate mortgage in the first period. Expectations regarding the path of interest rates and the price of housing play a crucial role in determining effects of the population bulge. Under static expectations, the rate of interest falls sharply at the appearance of the baby boom, while the price of housing increases. Behavior in the market for loanable funds explains this surprising result. When rational expectations are assumed, however, the rate of interest rises prior to, and during, the appearance of the baby boom and the price of housing increases as well. Welfare and long-term effects in the two scenarios do not differ markedly.

Suggested Citation

  • Joyce Manchester, 1989. "The Baby Boom, Housing and Loanable Funds," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(1), pages 128-149, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:22:y:1989:i:1:p:128-49
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    Cited by:

    1. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-589, August.
    2. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio Over the Life-Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fortin, Mario & Leclerc, André, 2002. "Déterminants du prix réel des logements au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(3), pages 293-320, Septembre.

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