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Australia's growth in households and house prices

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  • Creina Day

Abstract

Real house prices r ise in Australia amid growing concern of an impending correction. This paper explains why the household formation rate has risen with strong population growth due to higher net immigration and average household size levelling due to population ageing. An intertemporal model is developed to analyse the effect of an increase in the household formation rate on the housing market. We find that real house prices rise over time if the rate of household formation outstrips the rate of housing supply. Under forward looking expectations, a rising household formation rate could explain rising real house prices relative to the present discounted value of future wages. The results explain why real house prices may exhibit an upward trend despite population ageing and how government planning could have an impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Creina Day, 2018. "Australia's growth in households and house prices," Crawford School Research Papers 1803, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:crwfrp:1803
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/crawford01_cap_anu_edu_au/2018-05/1803_final.pdf
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    1. repec:osf:socarx:p59te_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Isil Erol & Umut Unal, 2023. "Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia's Interstate Migration Capital," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 308-327, September.
    3. Day, Creina, 2019. "House prices post-GFC: More household debt for longer," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-102.
    4. Ong, Rachel & Graham, James & Cigdem, Melek & Phelps, Christopher & Whelan, Stephen, 2023. "Financing first home ownership: modelling policy impacts at market and individual levels," SocArXiv p59te, Center for Open Science.

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