IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fer/dpaper/191.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic Factors and the Demand for Housing in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area

Author

Listed:
  • Kuismanen, Mika
  • Laakso, Seppo
  • Loikkanen, Heikki A.

Abstract

We examine the role of demographics on the housing market in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) using the Mankiw and Weil (1989) approach. First, we estimate housing demand for each age group in HMA using cross section data and find that it increases from childhood to the age 70-74 years. This profile differs from those estimated for the US and Sweden. Next, we construct time series data of housing consumption and demographic housing demand for HMA in 1962-97. In the latter, we use population statistics and the results of our cross section analysis. We also estimate a housing price model, but our main interest is in housing demand which is explained by demographic demand, real income, user costs of housing and unemployment rate in HMA. One percent increase in demographic demand leads to almost one percent growth in total housing demand. Our income elasticity is quite low, about 0.1. Finally, our cross section and time series results, together with population prognoses, are used in forecasting housing demand in HMA for the years 1997-2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuismanen, Mika & Laakso, Seppo & Loikkanen, Heikki A., 1999. "Demographic Factors and the Demand for Housing in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area," Discussion Papers 191, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:191
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/148458
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alperovich, Gershon, 1995. "The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust and the Housing Market: A Further Look at the Debate," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 29(1), pages 111-116, February.
    2. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    3. Heiborn, M., 1994. "Demographic Factors and the Demand for Housing," Papers 1994-30, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    4. Engelhardt, Gary V. & Poterba, James M., 1991. "House prices and demographic change: Canadian evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 539-546, December.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1998_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    7. Hamilton, Bruce W., 1991. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market A second look," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 547-552, December.
    8. Hendershott, Patric H., 1991. "Are real house prices likely to decline by 47 percent?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 553-563, December.
    9. Pitkin, John R. & Myers, Dowell, 1994. "The Specification of Demographic Effects on Housing Demand: Avoiding the Age-Cohort Fallacy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 240-250, September.
    10. Seppo Honkapohja & Erkki Koskela & Jouko Paunio, 1996. "The depression of the 1990s in Finland : an analytic view," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 37-54, Spring.
    11. Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
    12. Koskela, Erkki & Loikkanen, Heikki A. & Viren, Matti, 1992. "House prices, household saving and financial market liberalization in Finland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 549-558, April.
    13. Holland, A. Steven, 1991. "The baby boom and the housing market: Another look at the evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 565-571, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oikarinen, Elias, 2005. "Is Housing Overvalued in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area?," Discussion Papers 992, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu Chen & Kenneth Gibb & Chris Leishman & Robert Wright, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 523-542, November.
    2. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2008. "Demography and housing demand—what can we learn from residential construction data?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 521-539, July.
    3. Eric Levin & Alberto Montagnoli & Robert E. Wright, 2009. "Demographic Change and the Housing Market: Evidence from a Comparison of Scotland and England," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 27-43, January.
    4. Fortin, Mario & Leclerc, André, 2002. "Déterminants du prix réel des logements au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(3), pages 293-320, Septembre.
    5. Ohtake, Fumio & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1996. "The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 189-201, April.
    6. Creina Day, 2018. "Australia's Growth in Households and House Prices," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(4), pages 502-511, December.
    7. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and asset prices," Papers 07-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    8. Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
    9. Xu, Hangtian & Zhou, Yiming, 2019. "Public housing provision and housing vacancies in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Axel BÖRSCH‐SUPAN & Alexander LUDWIG, 2009. "Aging, Asset Markets, and Asset Returns: A View From Europe to Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 69-92, June.
    11. Arno Vlist & Daniel Czamanski & Henk Folmer, 2011. "Immigration and urban housing market dynamics: the case of Haifa," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(3), pages 585-598, December.
    12. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    13. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    14. Shimizu, Chihiro & Deng, Yongheng & Kawamura, Yasuhito & Nishimura, Kiyohiko, 2016. "Analysis of policy options to address Japan's declining population, shrinking birthrate, and aging society," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 33, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Begona Eguía & Cruz Angel Echevarría, "undated". "Estructura de la edad poblacional e inversión residencial en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy 119, FEDEA.
    16. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Gabriel Lee & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler & Bernhard Felderer & Christian Helmenstein, 2001. "Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 259-276, September.
    18. Yoshihiro Tamai & Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2017. "Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very-Long-Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 48-74, Fall.
    19. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    20. Green, Richard K. & Lee, Hyojung, 2016. "Age, demographics, and the demand for housing, revisited," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 86-98.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anita Niskanen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vatttfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.