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Demography and housing demand - What can we learn from residential construction data?

There are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population’s age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and OECD panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction. But there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75. Age effects on residential investment are robust and forecast well out-of-sample in contrast to the corresponding house price results. This may explain why the debate around house prices and demography has been rather inconclusive. Rapidly aging populations in the industrialized world makes the future look bleak for the construction industry of these countries.

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Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2005:20.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 12 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2005_020
Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 13: 978-91-89655-78-2 ISBN 10: 91-89655-78-8
Contact details of provider: Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," NBER Working Papers 2280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Holland, A. Steven, 1991. "The baby boom and the housing market: Another look at the evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 565-571, December.
  4. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
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  6. Andersson, Björn, 2001. "Portfolio Allocation over the Life Cycle: Evidence from Swedish Household Data," Working Paper Series 2001:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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  9. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
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  11. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan.
  12. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
  13. Jonathan Skinner, 1989. "Housing Wealth and Aggregate Saving," NBER Working Papers 2842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jonathan Heathcote, 2003. "Housing and the Business Cycle," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-21, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  15. Harter-Dreiman, Michelle, 2004. "Drawing inferences about housing supply elasticity from house price responses to income shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 316-337, March.
  16. Engelhardt, Gary V. & Poterba, James M., 1991. "House prices and demographic change: Canadian evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 539-546, December.
  17. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November.
  18. Andersson, B., 2001. "Portfolio Allocation Over the Life Cycle: Evidence from Swedish Household Data," Papers 2001:04, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  19. Pitkin, John R. & Myers, Dowell, 1994. "The Specification of Demographic Effects on Housing Demand: Avoiding the Age-Cohort Fallacy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 240-250, September.
  20. Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
  21. Richard K. Green & Patric H. Hendershott, 1995. "Age, Housing Demand, and Real House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 96-09, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
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