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Demographic Change and the Housing Market: Evidence from a Comparison of Scotland and England

Author

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  • Eric Levin

    (Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow, 25 Bute Gardens, Glasgow, G12 8RS, UK, e.levin@socsci.gla.ac.uk)

  • Alberto Montagnoli

    (Department of Economics, University of Stirling, 3B62 Cottrell Building, Stirling, FK9 4BR, UK, alberto.montagnoli@stir.ac.uk)

  • Robert E. Wright

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow, G4 0GE, UK, r.e.wright@strath.ac.uk)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of demographic change on the housing market. More specifically, a difference-in-differences methodology is used to explore the effect of population decline and population ageing on house prices in Scotland and England/Wales. The analysis suggests that population decline and population ageing put downward pressure on prices. Therefore, the long-run trend of rising real house prices can not be assumed to continue into the future, particularly in Scotland.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Levin & Alberto Montagnoli & Robert E. Wright, 2009. "Demographic Change and the Housing Market: Evidence from a Comparison of Scotland and England," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 27-43, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:46:y:2009:i:1:p:27-43
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098008098635
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jiří Pour, 2023. "Ceny nemovitostí a dlouhodobé úrokové sazby [House prices and long-term interest rates]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(6), pages 668-708.
    4. Uwe Neumann & Lisa Taruttis, 2022. "Sorting in an urban housing market—is there a response to demographic change?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 42(2), pages 111-139, August.
    5. Song, Jinbo & Nie, Rong & Yuan, Hehui & Gao, Jingxin, 2023. "Does the renovation of waste-to-energy incineration plants attenuate the housing price gradient? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Shenzhen, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
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    7. Bo Malmberg, 2012. "Fertility Cycles, Age Structure and Housing Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 467-482, November.
    8. Bo Malmberg, 2010. "Low Fertility and the Housing Market: Evidence from Swedish Regional Data [Basse Fécondité et Marché du Logement: Une Analyse de Données Régionales Suédoises]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 229-244, May.
    9. Miguel Saraiva & Peter Roebeling & Silvia Sousa & Carla Teotónio & Anna Palla & Ilaria Gnecco, 2017. "Dimensions of shrinkage: Evaluating the socio-economic consequences of population decline in two medium-sized cities in Europe, using the SULD decision support tool," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(6), pages 1122-1144, November.
    10. David Miles, 2012. "Population Density, House Prices and Mortgage Design," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 444-466, November.
    11. Ivan D. Trofimov Nazaria Md. Aris Dickson C. D. Xuan, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Demographic Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Malaysia," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(2), pages 71-96, November.
    12. Yihua Wang & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2022. "The relationship between demographic change and house price: Chinese evidence," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-65, February.
    13. Trofimov, Ivan D. & Md. Aris, Nazaria & C. D. Xuan, Dickson, 2018. "Macroeconomic and demographic determinants of residential property prices in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 85819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    15. Linlin Zhao & Jasper Mbachu & Zhansheng Liu, 2019. "Exploring the Trend of New Zealand Housing Prices to Support Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, April.
    16. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2012. "Dynamics of a Protected Housing Market: The Case of Switzerland," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(14), pages 3195-3210, November.
    17. Creina Day, 2018. "Population and house prices in the United Kingdom," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(2), pages 127-141, May.
    18. Bushra Mahadin, 2018. "Factors Affecting Customer Switching Behavior towards Hybrid Electrical Vehicles (HEV’s) from a Customer Perspective in Jordan," European Journal of Marketing and Economics Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, September.
    19. Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2019. "The Effects of Immigration on Local Housing Markets," Working Papers in Economics 19/07, University of Waikato.
    20. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Siew Ling Yew & Thi Minh Thu Nguyen, 2022. "Health status and housing tenure decisions of older Australians," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 966-989, December.
    21. Yingchao Lin & Zhili Ma & Ke Zhao & Weiyan Hu & Jing Wei, 2018. "The Impact of Population Migration on Urban Housing Prices: Evidence from China’s Major Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.

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