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Modelling Sustainable Home-ownership: Demographics or Economics?

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  • Geoffrey Meen

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Urban and Regional Studies, P.O. Box 219, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6 AW, England, UK, g.p.meen@reading.ac.uk)

Abstract

According to recent official projections, 4.4 million new households will be formed in England between 1991 and 2016. These estimates are based on a detailed analysis of demographic trends, but take no account of the effect of potential changes in economic conditions, particularly on the owner-occupancy rate. In this paper, we propose a new approach to modelling sustainable owner-occupancy which places less emphasis on demographics, but considers in more detail the role of market mechanisms through changes in house prices and rates of new construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey Meen, 1998. "Modelling Sustainable Home-ownership: Demographics or Economics?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(11), pages 1919-1934, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:35:y:1998:i:11:p:1919-1934
    DOI: 10.1080/0042098983953
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    2. Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
    3. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    4. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. van der Drift, Rosa & de Haan, Jan & Boelhouwer, Peter, 2023. "Mortgage credit and house prices: The housing market equilibrium revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Rafiq Ahmed & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Samina Khalil, 2021. "Bubble Detection in Housing Market: Evidence From a Developing Country," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    3. Geoffrey Meen, 2001. "The Economic Role of New Housing," ERES eres2001_231, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Eric Levin & Alberto Montagnoli & Robert E. Wright, 2009. "Demographic Change and the Housing Market: Evidence from a Comparison of Scotland and England," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 27-43, January.
    5. Glen Bramley & Chris Leishman, 2005. "Planning and Housing Supply in Two-speed Britain: Modelling Local Market Outcomes," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(12), pages 2213-2244, November.
    6. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    7. Chris Leishman & Glen Bramley, 2005. "A Local Housing Market Model with Spatial Interaction and Land-Use Planning Controls," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 37(9), pages 1637-1649, September.
    8. Adams, David, 2008. "Mapping out the regulatory environment and its interaction with land and property markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4570-4574, December.
    9. Yu Chen & Kenneth Gibb & Chris Leishman & Robert Wright, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 523-542, November.

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