The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients
The US housing market has experienced significant cyclical volatility over the last twenty-five years due to major structural changes and economic fluctuations. In addition, the housing market is generally considered to be weak form inefficient. Houses are relatively illiquid, exceptionally heterogeneous, and are associated with large transactions costs. As such, past research has shown that it is possible to predict, at least partially, the time path of housing prices. The ability to predict housing prices is important such that investors can make better asset allocation decisions, including the pricing and underwriting of mortgages. Most of the prior studies examining the US housing market have employed constant coefficient approaches to forecast house price movements. However, this approach is not optimal as an examination of data reveals substantial sub-sample parameter instability. To account for the parameter instability, we employ alternative estimation methodologies where the estimated parameters are allowed to vary over time. The results provide strong empirical evidence in favor of utilizing the rolling Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) Model and the Kalman Filter with an Autoregressive Presentation (KAR) for the parameters’ time variation. Lastly, we provide out-of-sample forecasts and demonstrate the precision of our approach. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2004
Volume (Year): 30 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/regional+science/journal/11146/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991.
"The Measurement and Determinants of Single-Family House Prices,"
Real Estate Economics,
American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 353-382.
- Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The measurement and determinants of single-family house prices," Working Papers 91-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Brown, Jane P. & Song, Haiyan & McGillivray, Alan, 1997. "Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 529-548, October.
- Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October.
- Nigel Pain & Peter Westaway, 1996. "Modelling Structural Change In The UK Housing Market: A Comparison Of Alternative House Price Models," NIESR Discussion Papers 98, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- F J Breedon & M A S Joyce, 1993. "House prices, arrears and possessions: A three equation model for the UK," Bank of England working papers 14, Bank of England.
- Goetzmann, William N & Spiegel, Matthew, 1997. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 11-31, Jan.-Marc.
- William N. Goetzmann and Matthew Spiegel., 1995. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-253, University of California at Berkeley.
- William N. Goetzmann & Matthew I. Spiegel, 1997. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm64, Yale School of Management.
- Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
- DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
- Francke, M K & de Vos, A F, 2000. "Efficient Computation of Hierarchical Trends," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 51-57, January.
- Carmelo Giaccotto & John Clapp, 1992. "Appraisal-Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
- Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
- Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Eugene A. Brady, 1967. "A Sectoral Econometric Study of the Postwar Residential-Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 147-147.
- John M. Clapp & Carmelo Giaccotto, 2002. "Evaluating House Price Forecasts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-26.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)