IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?

  • Camilo Serrano

    ()

  • Martin Hoesli

    ()

This paper examines whether the predictability of securitized real estate returns differs from that of stock returns. It also provides a crosscountry comparison of securitized real estate return redictability. In contrast to most of the literature on this issue, the analysis is not based on a multifactor asset pricing framework as we deem that a univariate time series approach is more appropriate to compare the predictability of returns between two or more asset classes. Forecasts are performed with ARMA and ARMA-GARCH models. Such forecasts are evaluated by comparing the entire empirical distributions of prediction errors, as well as with a trading strategy. The results show that the predictability of securitized real estate and stock returns differs in some countries, even though these differences are not economically significant. Similar conclusions are reached when comparing the predictability of securitized real estate returns across countries.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-008-9162-y
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 170-192

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:41:y:2010:i:2:p:170-192
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
  3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
  4. Mei, Jianping & Liu, Crocker H, 1994. "The Predictability of Real Estate Returns and Market Timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 115-35, March.
  5. Simon Stevenson, 2002. "Momentum Effects and Mean Reversion in Real Estate Securities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 47-64.
  6. Chan, Louis K. C. & Lakonishok, Josef, 1993. "Institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-199, April.
  7. Brown, Jane P. & Song, Haiyan & McGillivray, Alan, 1997. "Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 529-548, October.
  8. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  9. Brandt, Michael W. & Jones, Christopher S., 2006. "Volatility Forecasting With Range-Based EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 470-486, October.
  10. Joseph T.L. Ooi & Kim-Hiang Liow, 2004. "Risk-Adjusted Performance of Real Estate Stocks: Evidence From Developing Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(4), pages 371-396.
  11. Nghiep Nguyen & Al Cripps, 2001. "Predicting Housing Value: A Comparison of Multiple Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 22(3), pages 313-336.
  12. Mei, Jianping & Lee, Ahyee, 1994. "Is There a Real Estate Factor Premium?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 113-26, September.
  13. Edward Nelling & Joseph Gyourko, 1998. "The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 251-268.
  14. Hany Guirguis & Christos Giannikos & Randy Anderson, 2004. "The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53, October.
  15. Michael S. Young & Richard A. Graff, 1996. "Systematic Behavior in Real Estate Investment Risk: Performance Persistence in NCREIF Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 369-382.
  16. Aitken, Michael & Frino, Alex, 1996. "Execution costs associated with institutional trades on the Australian Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 45-58, May.
  17. Liu, Crocker H & Mei, Jianping, 1992. "The Predictability of Returns on Equity REITs and Their Co-movement with Other Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 401-18, December.
  18. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, . "Forecasting EREIT Returns," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-35, Swiss Finance Institute.
  19. Yuming Li & Ko Wang, 1995. "The Predictability of REIT Returns and Market Segmentatio," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 471-482.
  20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  21. Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1997. "Serial Persistence in Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 183-214.
  22. Elaine M. Worzala & Margarita Lenk & Ana Silva, 1995. "An Exploration of Neural Networks and Its Application to Real Estate Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(2), pages 185-202.
  23. Limsombunchai, Visit, 2004. "House Price Prediction: Hedonic Price Model vs. Artificial Neural Network," 2004 Conference, June 25-26, 2004, Blenheim, New Zealand 97781, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  24. Steven Devaney & Stephen Lee & Michael Young, 2004. "Serial Persistence in Individual Real Estate Returns in the UK," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-13, Henley Business School, Reading University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:41:y:2010:i:2:p:170-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.