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Long-term benefits from investing in international real estate

  • Schindler, Felix

This paper analyses long- and short-term co-movements between 14 international real estate stock markets based on bivariate testing for cointegration and correlation analysis. The results indicate that there exist strong long-term relationships within economic and geographical regions, but less long-run linkages between real estate markets in different continents. Thus, investors would benefit from broadening their investment horizon from their domestic continent to Australia, Europe, and Northern America. Furthermore, it is shown that within each region there are one or two key markets influencing neighbouring markets like Australia in the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. in the Anglo-Saxon area, and France and the Netherlands in the EMU. Therefore it is implied, from an investor's point of view, that it should be sufficient to focus only on these central markets. With respect to the efficient market hypothesis, the findings by cointegration analysis put some further doubt on its validity for securitized real estate markets.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 09-023.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:09023
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  1. Kim Hiang Liow, 2006. "The Dynamics of Return Volatilty and Systematic Risk in International Real Estate Security Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 1-29, November.
  2. Sanders, Anthony & Shaun, Bond & Andrew, Karolyi, 2003. "International Real Estate Returns: A Multifactor, Multicountry Approach," ERES eres2003_255, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  4. Serrano, Camilo & Hoesli, Martin, 2008. "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns More Predictable Than Stock Returns?," ERES eres2008_252, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  6. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  7. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  8. Shaun A. Bond & G. Andrew Karolyi & Anthony B. Sanders, 2003. "International Real Estate Returns: A Multifactor, Multicountry Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 481-500, 09.
  9. Jaroslaw Morawski & Heinz Rehkugler & Roland Füss, 2008. "The nature of listed real estate companies: property or equity market?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 101-126, June.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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