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The Predictability of Real Estate Returns and Market Timing

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  • Mei, Jianping
  • Liu, Crocker H

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that all asset returns are predictable to some extent with excess returns on real estate relatively easier to forecast. This raises the issue of whether we can successfully exploit this level of predictability using various market timing strategies to realize superior performance over a buy-and-hold strategy. We find that the level of predictability associated with real estate leads to moderate success in market timing, although this is not necessarily the case for the other asset classes examined in general. Besides this, real estate stocks typically have higher trading profits and higher mean risk-adjusted excess returns when compared to small stocks as well as large stocks and bonds even though most real estate stocks are small stocks. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Mei, Jianping & Liu, Crocker H, 1994. "The Predictability of Real Estate Returns and Market Timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 115-135, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:8:y:1994:i:2:p:115-35
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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2010. "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 170-192, August.
    2. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & David Ling, 2007. "Trading Intensity and Real Estate Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 449-474, November.
    3. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 341-381.
    4. Mine AKSOY & Veysel ULUSOY, 2015. "Analysis Of Relative Return Behaviour Of Borsa Istanbul Reit And Borsa Istanbul 100 Index," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 107-128, March.
    5. Christian Pierdzioch, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors and the German Real Estate Market: A Stock-Market-Based Forecasting Experiment," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 87-96, May.
    6. Liang Peng & Rainer Schulz, 2013. "Does the Diversification Potential of Securitized Real Estate Vary Over Time and Should Investors Care?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 310-340, August.
    7. Didenko Alexander & Demicheva Svetlana, 2013. "Application of Ensemble Learning for views generation in Meucci portfolio optimization framework," Review of Business and Economics Studies, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 1, pages 100-110.
    8. Gregory H. MacKinnon & Ashraf Al Zaman, 2009. "Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long-Horizon Allocations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 117-153.
    9. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 319-338, April.
    10. Omokolade Akinsomi & Goodness C. Aye & Vassilios Babalos & Fotini Economou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Real estate returns predictability revisited: novel evidence from the US REITs market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1165-1190, November.
    11. Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "International Evidence of the Predictability of Prices of Securititised Real Estate Assets: Econometric Models versus Neural Networks," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-08, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    12. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    13. John Okunev & Patrick J. Wilson, 2008. "Predictability of Equity REIT Returns: Implications for Property Tactical Asset Allocation," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 11(2), pages 32-46.
    14. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    15. Ping Cheng & Stephen E. Roulac, 2007. "REIT Characteristics and Predictability," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(2), pages 23-41.
    16. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin, 2014. "Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 116-164, July.
    17. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    18. Tien Foo Sing, 2004. "Common risk factors and risk premia in direct and securitized real estate markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 189-207, December.
    19. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    20. Kevin C.H. Chiang & Kirill Kozhevnikov & Ming-Long Lee & Craig H. Wisen, 2006. "REIT Mimicking Portfolio Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 95-111.

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