IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/luk/wpaper/9100.html

Demographic Factors and Real House Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Richard K. Green
  • Patric H. Hendershott

Abstract

Real house prices are directly determined by the willingness of households to pay for (and willingness of builders to supply) a constant-quality house. Changes in the quantity of housing demanded will affect real prices only to the extent that the long-run housing supply schedule is positively sloped. In this paper we use 1980 census data to measure the impact of the age structure and real income per household on the willingness of households to pay for a constant quality house. Extrapolating these variables forward to 2010, we conclude that evolving demographic forces are likely to raise real house prices. not lower them.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard K. Green & Patric H. Hendershott, 1993. "Demographic Factors and Real House Prices," Working Paper 9100, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    • Handle: RePEc:luk:wpaper:9100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://lusk.usc.edu/sites/default/files/Demographic-Factors-and-Real-House-Prices-04.11.04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1991. "The Measurement and Determinants of Single‐Family House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 353-382, September.
    2. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    3. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    4. Bartik, Timothy J, 1987. "The Estimation of Demand Parameters in Hedonic Price Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 81-88, February.
    5. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    6. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-383, June.
    7. Brown, James N & Rosen, Harvey S, 1982. "On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 765-768, May.
    8. William Alonso, 1960. "A Theory Of The Urban Land Market," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 149-157, January.
    9. Hendershott, Patric H., 1991. "Are real house prices likely to decline by 47 percent?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 553-563, December.
    10. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ohtake, Fumio & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1996. "The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 189-201, April.
    2. Green, Richard K., 1996. "Should the stagnant homeownership rate be a source of concern?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 337-368, June.
    3. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Guy Ta, 1994. "Are Real Estate and Securities Markets Integrated? Some Australian Evidence," Working Paper Series 42, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. John Okunev & Patrick J. Wilson, 1997. "Using Nonlinear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 487-503, September.
    5. Fathali Firoozi & Abolhassan Jalilvand & Donald Lien & Mikiko Oliver, 2020. "The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Prices: A Comparative Study of Singapore and the U.S," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(4), pages 467-482.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eichholtz, Piet & Lindenthal, Thies, 2014. "Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 19-32.
    2. Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Age, housing demand, and real house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August.
    3. Green, Richard K. & Lee, Hyojung, 2016. "Age, demographics, and the demand for housing, revisited," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 86-98.
    4. Patric H. Hendershott & Jesse M. Abraham, 1992. "Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91," NBER Working Papers 4196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
    6. Richard Meese & Nancy Wallace, 2003. "House Price Dynamics and Market Fundamentals: The Parisian Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1027-1045, May.
    7. Donald Haurin & David Brasington, 1996. "The Impact of School Quality on Real House Prices: Interjurisdictional Effects," Working Papers 010, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2015. "The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3633-3659, December.
    9. Fève, Frédérique & Fève, Patrick & Florens, Jean-Pierre, 2002. "Attribute Choices and Structural Econometrics of Price Elasticity of Demand," IDEI Working Papers 155, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2003.
    10. Patrick Bayer & Robert McMillan & Kim Rueben, 2004. "An Equilibrium Model of Sorting in an Urban Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 10865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Zhang, Congwen & Boyle, Kevin J. & Kuminoff, Nicolai V., 2015. "Partial identification of amenity demand functions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    12. Steve Gibbons & Stephan Heblich & Esther Lho & Christopher Timmins, 2016. "Fear of Fracking? The Impact of the Shale Gas Exploration on House Prices in Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0207, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Tracey Seslen & William C. Wheaton & Henry O. Pollakowksi, 2005. "The Investment Performance of Housing and "Hedonic" Spatial Equilibrium," Working Paper 8583, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    14. Amelia Bilbao & Celia Bilbao & José M. Labeaga, "undated". "The excess burden associated to characteristics of the goods: Application to housing demand," Working Papers 2005-09, FEDEA.
    15. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard, 2005. "Demand Estimation with Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1239-1276, December.
    16. Bejranonda, Somskaow & Hitzhusen, Fred J. & Hite, Diane, 1999. "Agricultural Sedimentation Impacts on Lakeside Property Values," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 208-218, October.
    17. Manuel Landajo & Celia Bilbao & Amelia Bilbao, 2012. "Nonparametric neural network modeling of hedonic prices in the housing market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 987-1009, June.
    18. Daniel Megía‐Cayuela, 2023. "Valuation of ticket prices for first‐division football matches in the Spanish league," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 576-594, January.
    19. Victor Ginsburgh & Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2006. "On the computation of art indices in art," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Cecilia Hammarlund, 2015. "The Big, the Bad, and the Average: Hedonic Prices and Inverse Demand for Baltic Cod," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(2), pages 157-177.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:luk:wpaper:9100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Steins (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lcuscus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.