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Within-city variation in urban decline: the case of Detroit

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  • Veronica Guerrieri
  • Daniel Hartley
  • Erik Hurst

Abstract

When a city experiences a decline in income or population, do all neighborhoods within the city decline equally? Or do some neighborhoods decline more than others? What are the characteristics of the neighborhoods that decline the most? We answer these questions by looking at what happened to neighborhoods within Detroit as the city experienced a sharp decline in income and population from the 1980s to the late 2000s. We find patterns of changes in income and population that are consistent with the model and empirical patterns of gentrification presented in Guerrieri, Hartley, and Hurst (2011), only playing out in reverse.

Suggested Citation

  • Veronica Guerrieri & Daniel Hartley & Erik Hurst, 2012. "Within-city variation in urban decline: the case of Detroit," Working Papers (Old Series) 1205, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Raymond Owens, 2010. "Housing Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 485-535, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Ganning, 2023. "Quantifying the impacts of suburbanization without growth on central city housing vacancy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1002-1018, December.
    2. Ren Ren & Siu Kei Wong & Kwong Wing Chau, 2025. "A Revisit of Supply Elasticity and Within-city Heterogeneity of Housing Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 609-636, May.
    3. Daniel Hartley, 2013. "Urban decline in rust-belt cities," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
    4. Paul E. Carrillo & Erik Robert De Wit & William D. Larson, 2012. "Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands," Working Papers 2012-11, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    5. Raymond Owens III & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2020. "Rethinking Detroit," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 258-305, May.
    6. Jiaqi Ge & Bernardo Alves Furtado, 2024. "Modelling urban transition with coupled housing and labour markets," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 51(3), pages 590-609, March.
    7. Coulson, N. Edward & Wommer, Gregory, 2019. "Tenure tipping," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 172-181.
    8. Stuart Gabriel & Owen Hearey & Matthew E. Kahn & Ryan K. Vaughn, 2016. "Public School Quality Valuation Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 22668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Paul E. Carrillo & Eric R. Wit & William Larson, 2015. "Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the United States and the Netherlands," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 609-651, September.
    10. Yuxi Luo & Zhaohua Zhang & Jun Zheng & Diane Hite, 2021. "The Neighborhood Effects of a Place-Based Policy—Causal Evidence from Atlanta’s Economic Development Priority Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, June.
    11. Alter, Adrian & Mahoney, Elizabeth M., 2021. "Local house-price vulnerability: Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Kyle Fee & Daniel Hartley, 2012. "The relationship between city center density and urban growth or decline," Working Papers (Old Series) 1213, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    13. Enwei Zhu & Jing Wu & Hongyu Liu & Xindian Li, 2022. "Within‐City Spatial Distribution, Heterogeneity and Diffusion of House Price: Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Index for Beijing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 621-655, September.
    14. Sumit Agarwal & Michael J. Seiler & Ralph Siebert, 2022. "Do as Essay, Not as I Do? How Inflated List Prices of Unsold Essayer Homes Affect the Price Discovery Process," CESifo Working Paper Series 10069, CESifo.
    15. Guerrieri, Veronica & Hartley, Daniel & Hurst, Erik, 2013. "Endogenous gentrification and housing price dynamics," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 45-60.
    16. Robert M. Hunt & Keith Wardrip, 2013. "Residential Migration, Entry, and Exit as Seen Through the Lens of Credit Bureau Data," Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers 13-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. Jarl G. Kallberg & Yoshiki Shimizu, 2026. "Crime Measures and Housing Prices: an Analysis Using Quantile Regression and Spatial Autocorrelation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 477-529, April.
    18. Edlund, Lena & Machado, Cecilia & Sviatschi, Maria Micaela, 2015. "Bright Minds, Big Rent: Gentrification and the Rising Returns to Skill," IZA Discussion Papers 9502, IZA Network @ LISER.
    19. Lena Edlund & Cecilia Machado & Maria Micaela Sviatschi, 2015. "Gentrification and the Rising Returns to Skill," NBER Working Papers 21729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Peter Dirksmeier, 2016. "Providing places for structures of feeling and hierarchical complementarity in urban theory: Re-reading Williams’ The Country and the City," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(5), pages 884-898, April.

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