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Indirect Estimation Of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models

  • Enrique Sentana

    ()

  • Giorgio Calzolari

    ()

  • Gabriele Fiorentini

    ()

    (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

We derive indirect estimators of multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic factor models in which the volatilities of the latent factors depend on their past values. Specifically, we calibrate the analytical score of a Kalman-filter approximation, taking into account the inequality constraints on the auxiliary model parameters. We also study the determinants of the biases in the parameters of this approximation, and its quality. Moreover, we propose sequential indirect estimators that can handle models with large cross-sectional dimensions. Finally, we analyse the small sample behaviour of our indirect estimators and the approximate maximum likelihood procedures through an extensive Monte Carlo experiment.

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Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2004_0409.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2004_0409
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  1. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
  2. Nour Meddahi, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation of Volatility Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1903, Econometric Society.
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  5. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
  6. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1990. "Temporal Aggregation Of Garch Processes," Papers 9066, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1986. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model," Special Studies Papers 205, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Calzolari, Giorgio & Di Iorio, Francesca & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 1996. "Control variates for variance reduction in indirect inference: interest rate models in continuous time," MPRA Paper 23160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 1996.
  9. Sentana, Enrique, 2004. "Factor representing portfolios in large asset markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 257-289, April.
  10. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  11. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic volatility," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Nijman, Theo & Sentana, Enrique, 1996. "Marginalization and contemporaneous aggregation in multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 71-87.
  13. Demos, Antonis & Sentana, Enrique, 1998. "An EM Algorithm for Conditionally Heteroscedastic Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 357-61, July.
  14. Javier F. Mencia & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Estimation and testing of dynamic models with generalised hyperbolic innovations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24742, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  15. PAGAN, Adrian, . "Some identification and estimation results for regression models with stochastically varying coefficients," CORE Discussion Papers RP -413, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  16. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Likelihood-based estimation of latent generalised ARCH structures," Economics Papers 2002-W19, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  17. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153273 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
  19. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  20. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
  21. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
  22. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1993. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Other publications TiSEM 0642fb61-c7f4-4281-b484-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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  24. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  25. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  26. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  27. Sentana, E., 1994. "The Likelihood Function of a Conditionally Heteroskdastic Factor Model with Heywood Cases," Papers 9420, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  28. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  29. Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Constrained Indirect Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 945-973.
  30. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2003. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroscedastic Dynamic Regression Models with Student t Innovations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 532-46, October.
  31. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
  32. Enrique Sentana, 1998. "The relation between conditionally heteroskedastic factor models and factor GARCH models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(RegularPa), pages 1-9.
  33. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-35, April.
  34. Monica Billio & Alain Monfort, 2003. "Kernel-Based Indirect Inference," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(3), pages 297-326.
  35. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157.
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  38. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
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