IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mod/modena/0504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Marotta

    ()

  • Chiara Pederzoli

    ()

  • Costanza Torricelli

    ()

Abstract

The solution adopted in Basel II to deal with procyclicality of capital requirements (i.e. through the cycle ratings and long-run average estimates of default probabilities) implies a reduction in the risk-sensitivity that contradicts the original spirit of the new framework.In order to preserve risk-sensitivity and to dampen procyclicality at the same time, Pederzoli and Torricelli (2005) set up a model which relies on a business cycle forecast in the estimation of the default probability and provide an application for the US. The modelling approach hinges on a forward-looking definition of capital requirements, in anticipation of the business cycle with a possible smoothing effect on the business cycle turning points.The present paper checks the robustness of the approach for the Italian case, where alternative business cycles chronologies are used and ratings have to be approximated by exploiting default data provided by the Bank of Italy. Findings suggest that the comparison between the alternative chronologies is an important issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:modena:0504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://morespace.unimore.it/giuseppemarotta/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2014/11/MAR-PED-TOR-IFC3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    2. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    3. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    4. Birchenhall, Chris R & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-195, May.
    5. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    6. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
    7. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    8. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
    9. Sironi, Andrea & Zazzara, Cristiano, 2003. "The Basel Committee proposals for a new capital accord: implications for Italian banks," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 99-126.
    10. Altissimo, F. & Marchetti, D.J. & Oneto, G.P., 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Papers 377, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    11. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 59(2), pages 147-220, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Petr Jakubík, 2007. "Credit Risk and the Finnish Economy," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 254-285, November.
    2. Cipollini, Andrea & Missaglia, Giuseppe, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," MPRA Paper 3582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    4. Chiara Pederzoli, 2007. "Default risk: Poisson mixture and the business cycle," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 07052, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel II; business cycle; capital requirement; default probability; procyclicality;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mod:modena:0504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giuseppe Marotta). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/demodit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.