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Simulation-based stress testing of banks’ regulatory capital adequacy

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  • Samu Peura

    (Sampo plc, Finland)

  • Esa Jokivuolle

    (Helsinki School of Economics, Department of Accounting & Finance)

Abstract

Banks’ holding of reasonable capital buffers in excess of minimum requirements could alleviate the procyclicality problem potentially exacerbated by the rating-sensitive capital charges of Basel II. Determining the required buffer size is an important risk management issue for banks, which the Basle Committee (2002) suggests should be approached via stress testing. We present here a simulation-based approach to stress testing of capital adequacy where rating transitions are conditioned on business-cycle phase and business-cycle dynamics are taken into account. Our approach is an extension of the standard credit portfolio analysis in that we simulate actual bank capital and minimum capital requirements simultaneously. Actual bank capital (absent mark- to-market accounting) is driven by bank income and default losses, whereas capital requirements within the Basel II framework are driven by rating transitions. The joint dynamics of these determine the necessary capital buffers, given bank management’s specified confidence level for capital adequacy. We provide a tentative calibration of this confidence level to data on actual bank capital ratios, which enables a ceteris- paribus extrapolation of bank capital under the current regime to bank capital under Basel II.

Suggested Citation

  • Samu Peura & Esa Jokivuolle, 2004. "Simulation-based stress testing of banks’ regulatory capital adequacy," Finance 0405003, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0405003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    2. Bhattacharya, Sudipto & Plank, Manfred & Strobl, Gunter & Zechner, Josef, 2002. "Bank capital regulation with random audits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1301-1321, July.
    3. Holt, Richard W. P., 2003. "Investment and dividends under irreversibility and financial constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 467-502, January.
    4. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    5. Milne, Alistair & Robertson, Donald, 1996. "Firm behaviour under the threat of liquidation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1427-1449, August.
    6. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juliusz Jablecki, 2009. "The impact of Basel I capital requirements on bank behavior and the efficacy of monetary policy," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 2(1), pages 16-35, June.
    2. Mark Illing & Graydon Paulin, 2004. "The New Basel Capital Accord and the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital," Staff Working Papers 04-30, Bank of Canada.
    3. Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Interlinking securities settlement systems: A strategic commitment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 2962-2977, October.
    4. Llewellyn, David T. & Mayes, David G., 2003. "The role of market discipline in handling problem banks," Research Discussion Papers 21/2003, Bank of Finland.
    5. Hege, Ulrich & Feess, Eberhard, 2007. "Basel II and the Value of Bank Differentiation," Les Cahiers de Recherche 879, HEC Paris.
    6. Morgan, Peter J. & Lamberte , Mario, 2012. "Strengthening Financial Infrastructure," ADBI Working Papers 345, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Vauhkonen, Jukka, 2003. "Financial contracts and contingent control rights," Research Discussion Papers 14/2003, Bank of Finland.
    8. Jokivuolle, Esa & Virolainen, Kimmo & Vähämaa, Oskari, 2008. "Macro-model-based stress testing of Basel II requirements," Research Discussion Papers 17/2008, Bank of Finland.
    9. Guender, Alfred V., 2003. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in the open economy : Choosing between CPI and domestic inflation as target variables," Research Discussion Papers 12/2003, Bank of Finland.
    10. Vauhkonen, Jukka, 2003. "Are adverse selection models of debt robust to changes in market structure?," Research Discussion Papers 28/2003, Bank of Finland.
    11. Jukka Vauhkonen, 2004. "Banks' equity stakes in borrowing firms: A corporate finance approach," Game Theory and Information 0404003, EconWPA.
    12. Vauhkonen, Jukka, 2003. "Banks' equity stakes in borrowing firms : A corporate finance approach," Research Discussion Papers 13/2003, Bank of Finland.
    13. Mayes, David G., 2004. "Who pays for bank insolvency?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 515-551, April.
    14. David G. Mayes & Peter J. Morgan, 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and its Implications for Financial Sector Reform and Regulation in Asia," Chapters,in: Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Jukka Vauhkonen, 2004. "Financial contracts and contingent control rights," Finance 0404022, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel II; Pillar 2; bank capital; stress tests; procyclicality;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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