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Rating systems, procyclicality and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework

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  • Chiara Pederzoli
  • Costanza Torricelli
  • Dimitrios Tsomocos

Abstract

The introduction of Basel II has raised concerns about the potential impact of risk-sensitive capital requirements on the business cycle. Several approaches have been proposed to assess the procyclicality issue. In this paper, we adopt a general equilibrium model and conduct comprehensive analysis of different proposals. We set out a model that allows to evaluate different rating systems in relation to the procyclicality issue. Our model extends previous models by analysing the effects of different rating systems on banks’ portfolios (as in Catarineu-Rabell et al. 2005) and the contagion effects relevant to financial stability (as in Goodhart et al. 2005). The paper presents comparative statics results comparing a cycle-dependent and a neutral rating system from the point of view of banks profit maximization. Our results suggest that banks’ preferences about point in time or through the cycle rating systems depend on the banks’ characteristics and on the business cycle conditions in terms of expectations and realizations.
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  • Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2010. "Rating systems, procyclicality and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 33-49, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:6:y:2010:i:1:p:33-49
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-009-0128-8
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    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    2. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, September.
    3. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    4. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
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    6. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2012. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 4, pages 61-97, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, January.
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    9. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 28(Q I), pages 18-31.
    10. Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "Monitoring pro-cyclicality under the capital requirements directive : preliminary concepts for developing a framework," Working Paper Document 120, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
    12. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
    13. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    15. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    16. Jokivuolle, Esa & Vesala, Timo, 2007. "Portfolio effects and efficiency of lending under Basel II," Research Discussion Papers 13/2007, Bank of Finland.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Bruno & Alexandra Girod, 2013. "Procyclicality and Bank Portfolio Risk Level under a Constant Leverage Ratio," GREDEG Working Papers 2013-35, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. C. Goodhart & M. Peiris & D. Tsomocos & A. Vardoulakis, 2010. "On dividend restrictions and the collapse of the interbank market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 455-473, October.
    3. Lützenkirchen, Kristina & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2013. "Ratings based capital adequacy for securitizations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5236-5247.
    4. Lützenkirchen, Kristina & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2014. "Asset portfolio securitizations and cyclicality of regulatory capital," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 289-302.
    5. S Ingolfsson & B T Elvarsson, 2010. "Cyclical adjustment of point-in-time PD," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(3), pages 374-380, March.
    6. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "A Reconsideration of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 931-973, August.
    7. Benjamin Tabak & Daniel Cajueiro & Dimas Fazio, 2013. "Financial fragility in a general equilibrium model: the Brazilian case," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 519-541, August.
    8. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioannis Daniilidis, 2011. "Procyclicality in the banking industry: causes, consequences and response," Working Papers 139, Bank of Greece.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Procyclicality; Rating systems; Basel II; General equilibrium; D58; E44; G21; G38;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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