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A financial systemic stress index for Greece

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  • Louzis, Dimitrios
  • Vouldis, Angelos

Abstract

The paper develops a financial systemic stress index (FSSI) for Greece. We present a methodology for constructing and evaluating a systemic stress index which: i) adopts the suggestion of Hollo et al. (2012) [Hollo, Kremer, and Lo Duca (2012) “CISS – A Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress in the Financial System” ECB Working Paper 1426] to incorporate time-varying correlations between different market segments, and uses a multivariate GARCH approach which is able to capture abrupt changes in correlations; ii) utilizes both market and balance sheet data; and iii) evaluates the FSSI utilizing the results of a survey, conducted among financial experts, in order to construct a benchmark chronology of financial crises for Greece, which in turn is used to investigate whether changes in the FSSI are good indicators for financial crises. The results show that the FSSI is able to provide a precise periodization of crises. JEL Classification: G01, G10, G20, E44

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1563.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131563
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Keywords: financial crisis; multivariate GARCH; stress index; systemic stress;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
  • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
  • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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  17. Lo Luca, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress : Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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Cited by:

  1. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2014. "Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 57-70.
  2. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
  3. Diana Zigraiova & Petr Jakubik, 2014. "Systemic Event Prediction by Early Warning System," Working Papers IES 2014/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2014.
  4. Shaen Corbet & Cian Twomey, 2014. "An index of financial market stress for the United Kingdom," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 127-133.
  5. Vdovychenko, Artem & Oros, Galyna, 2014. "Financial stress index: estimation and application in empirical researches in Ukraine," MPRA Paper 69337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Nadežda Sinenko & Deniss Titarenko & Mikus Arinš, 2013. "The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 85-110, December.
  7. Holló, Dániel & Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
  8. Huotari, Jarkko, 2015. "Measuring financial stress – A country specific stress index for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 7/2015, Bank of Finland.
  9. Jan Babecký & Tomáš Havránek & Jakub Matìjù & Marek Rusnák & Kateøina Šmídková & Boøek Vašíèek, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries," Working Papers IES 2011/36, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Nov 2011.
  10. Eleonora Iachini & Stefano Nobili, 2014. "An indicator of systemic liquidity risk in the Italian financial markets," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 217, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T. & Vermann, E. Katarina, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
  12. Shaen Corbet, 2014. "The European Financial Market Stress Index," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 217-230.

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