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Why does the correlation between stock and bond returns vary over time?

Author

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  • Magnus Andersson
  • Elizaveta Krylova
  • Sami Vahamaa

Abstract

This article examines the impact of inflation and economic growth expectations and perceived stock market uncertainty on the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns. The results indicate that stock and bond prices move in the same direction during periods of high inflation expectations, while epochs of negative stock-bond return correlation seem to coincide with subdued inflation expectations. Furthermore, consistent with the 'flight-to-quality' phenomenon, the results suggest that periods of elevated stock market uncertainty lead to a decoupling between stock and bond prices. Finally, it is found that the stock-bond return correlation is virtually unaffected by economic growth expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Magnus Andersson & Elizaveta Krylova & Sami Vahamaa, 2007. "Why does the correlation between stock and bond returns vary over time?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 139-151.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2007:i:2:p:139-151
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100601057854
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    Cited by:

    1. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2014. "Nonlinearities in sovereign risk pricing the role of cds index contracts," Sciences Po publications 2014-08, Sciences Po.
    2. Perego, Erica R. & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2016. "Macro-economic determinants of European stock and government bond correlations: A tale of two regions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 214-232.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "News Implied Volatility and the Stock-Bond Nexus: Evidence from Historical Data for the USA and the UK Markets," Working Papers 201730, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
    6. Petmezas, Dimitris & Santamaria, Daniel, 2014. "Investor induced contagion during the banking and European sovereign debt crisis of 2007–2012: Wealth effect or portfolio rebalancing?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 401-424.
    7. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Angelos T. Vouldis, 2013. "A financial systemic stress index for Greece," Working Papers 155, Bank of Greece.
    8. Iuliia Brushko & Yuko Hashimoto, 2014. "The Role of Country Concentration in the International Portfolio Investment Positions for the European Union Members," IMF Working Papers 14/74, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    10. Stein, Michael & Islami, Mevlud & Lindemann, Jens, 2012. "Identifying time variability in stock and interest rate dependence," Discussion Papers 24/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. A. Can Inci & H.C. Li & Joseph McCarthy, 2011. "Measuring flight to quality: a local correlation analysis," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 69-87, February.
    12. Smith, Kenneth L. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2008. "The dynamics among G7 government bond and equity markets and the implications for international capital market diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 222-245, June.
    13. Erica Perego & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of European stock and government bond relations: a tale of two regions," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-08, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13143 is not listed on IDEAS

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