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Identifying time variability in stock and interest rate dependence

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  • Stein, Michael
  • Islami, Mevlud
  • Lindemann, Jens

Abstract

The correlation between stock markets and interest rates has been discussed in numerous studies in the past, with differing results in terms of strength and direction of the relationship. This paper uses models of the multivariate GARCH type which allow for time-variability and regime changes in correlation. All estimated models allowing for timevarying correlation complement each other in identifying time-varying patterns found in the (co-)movement between the variables. Furthermore, we provide evidence for both large changes in correlation, as well as for the existence of regimes between which correlation may move. Our result of a dominant time factor indicates a transition in market structures over time, which is in line with observations in the markets and which may be seen as an explanation for previously differing results.

Suggested Citation

  • Stein, Michael & Islami, Mevlud & Lindemann, Jens, 2012. "Identifying time variability in stock and interest rate dependence," Discussion Papers 24/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:242012
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    Keywords

    time-varying correlation; regime transition; multivariate GARCH; smooth transition; cross-asset correlation; non-linear estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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