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Dynamic Conditional Correlation: On properties and estimation

  • Gian Piero Aielli

    ()

    (University of Padova)

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    We address some issues that arise with the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. We prove that the DCC large system estimator (DCC estimator) can be inconsistent, and that the traditional interpretation of the DCC correlation parameters can lead to misleading conclusions. We then suggest a more tractable dynamic conditional correlation model (cDCC model). A related large system estimator (cDCC estimator) is described and heuristically proven to be consistent. Sufficient stationarity conditions for cDCC processes of interest, including the covariance-return process, are established. The DCC and cDCC estimators are compared by means of applications to simulated and real data.

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    File URL: http://economia.unipd.it/sites/decon.unipd.it/files/20110142.pdf
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    Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0142.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0142
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    1. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 577, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2005.
    4. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
    5. Engle, Robert & Colacito, Riccardo, 2006. "Testing and Valuing Dynamic Correlations for Asset Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 238-253, April.
    6. Denis Pelletier, 2004. "Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 230, Econometric Society.
    7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
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