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The fed model: The bad, the worse, and the ugly

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  • Estrada, Javier

Abstract

The negative relationship between stock market P/E ratios and government bond yields seems to have become conventional wisdom among practitioners. However, limited empirical evidence and a misleading suggestion that the model originated in the Fed are used to support the model's plausibility. This article argues that the Fed model is flawed from a theoretical standpoint and reports evidence from 20 countries that seriously questions its empirical merits. Despite its widespread use and acceptance, the Fed model is found to be a failure both as a normative and as a positive model of equity pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrada, Javier, 2009. "The fed model: The bad, the worse, and the ugly," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 214-238, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:49:y:2009:i:2:p:214-238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    2. Koivu, Matti & Pennanen, Teemu & Ziemba, William T., 2005. "Cointegration analysis of the Fed model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 248-259, December.
    3. Richard D.F. Harris & Rene Sanchez-Valle, 2000. "The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3&4), pages 333-357.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    5. Ritter, Jay R. & Warr, Richard S., 2002. "The Decline of Inflation and the Bull Market of 1982–1999," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 29-61, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2012. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1176-1187.
    2. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
    3. Stein, Michael & Islami, Mevlud & Lindemann, Jens, 2012. "Identifying time variability in stock and interest rate dependence," Discussion Papers 24/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.

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