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An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations

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  • Koutmos, Dimitrios

Abstract

This paper extends the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to integrate the heterogeneous trading behavior of three groups of investors; rational utility maximizers, positive feedback, or momentum, traders, and fundamental traders. Using several contemporary fundamental factors to proxy for the latter of these investors’ trading patterns, the interaction of these three groups of investors is explored in the G-7 markets using monthly stock market prices. There is no evidence that positive feedback traders are present in the sample data. Fundamental traders are however observable. This finding suggests that although positive feedback traders may drive stock prices in the short-run, as is typically observed in higher frequency data, fundamental traders likely play a role in pushing prices back to their fundamental value in the longer-run.

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  • Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2012. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1176-1187.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:5:p:1176-1187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.05.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Chamil W. Senarathne & Wei Jianguo, 2018. "The Stochastic Implications of Permanent Income Hypothesis for US Speculative Traders: Implications for Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 20(2), pages 5-32, December.
    2. Junhuan Zhang & Peter McBurney & Katarzyna Musial, 2018. "Convergence of trading strategies in continuous double auction markets with boundedly-rational networked traders," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 301-352, January.
    3. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2015. "Is there a Positive Risk†Return Tradeoff? A Forward†Looking Approach to Measuring the Equity Premium," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(5), pages 974-1013, November.
    4. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2016. "Does investor sentiment really matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 221-232.
    5. Koutmos, Dimitrios & Song, Wei, 2014. "Speculative dynamics and price behavior in the Shanghai Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 74-86.
    6. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2016. "Distilling private information from plain-vanilla options to predict future underlying stock price volatility: Evidence from the H-shares of Chinese banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 391-405.
    7. Kusen, Alex & Rudolf, Markus, 2019. "Feedback trading: Strategies during day and night with global interconnectedness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 438-463.
    8. Dimitrios Koutmos & Konstantinos Bozos & Dionysia Dionysiou & Neophytos Lambertides, 2018. "The timing of new corporate debt issues and the risk-return tradeoff," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 943-978, May.
    9. Charteris, Ailie & Musadziruma, Arnold, 2017. "Feedback trading in stock index futures: Evidence from South Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1289-1297.
    10. Charteris, Ailie & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Feedback trading in retail-dominated assets: Evidence from the gold bullion coin market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2015. "Business cycle variation in positive feedback trading: Evidence from the G-7 economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 147-159.
    12. Chau, Frankie & Kuo, Jing-Ming & Shi, Yukun, 2015. "Arbitrage opportunities and feedback trading in emissions and energy markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 130-147.
    13. Timothy King & Dimitrios Koutmos, 2021. "Herding and feedback trading in cryptocurrency markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 300(1), pages 79-96, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous investors; Feedback trading; Fundamental trading; Intertemporal CAPM; Fed model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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