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Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries

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  • Hong-Ghi Min
  • Young-Soon Hwang

Abstract

By analysing the Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCC) of the daily stock returns of four OECD countries with that of the US for the period 2006--2010, we could find a process of increasing correlations (contagion) in the first phase of the US financial crisis and an additional increase of correlations (herding) during the second phase of the US financial crisis for the UK, Australia and Switzerland. However, the impact of the US financial crisis on Japan was limited to the increase in correlation volatilities in the first phase. We also propose a new approach (DCC Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model with Exogenous variables (DCCX-MGARCH)) that allows simultaneous estimation of the DCC and their determinants, which can be used to identify channels of contagion. It is shown that an increase in VIX stock market index increases conditional correlations but an increase in the TED spread and relative stock market capitalization decrease conditional correlations of stock returns between four OECD countries and the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:24:p:2063-2074
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2012.698161
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    Cited by:

    1. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    2. repec:eee:joecas:v:14:y:2016:i:pa:p:78-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Allen, David E. & McAleer, Michael & Powell, Robert J. & Singh, Abhay K., 2017. "Volatility Spillovers from Australia's major trading partners across the GFC," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 159-175.
    4. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    5. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2016. "International contagion through financial versus non-financial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-163.
    6. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Aviral Tiwari, 2015. "Contagion and Dynamic Correlation of the Main European Stock Index Futures Markets: A Time-frequency Approach," Post-Print hal-01376756, HAL.
    7. Ferhat Camlica & Didem Gunes & Etkin Ozen, 2017. "A Financial Connectedness Analysis for Turkey," Working Papers 1719, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Continuous wavelet transform and rolling correlation of European stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 237-256.
    9. Hong-Ghi Min & Judith A. McDonald & Sang-Ook Shin, 2016. "What Makes a Safe Haven? Equity and Currency Returns for Six OECD Countries during the Financial Crisis," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 365-402, November.
    10. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Ivanov, Ivan & Kabaivanov, Stanimir & Bogdanova, Boryana, 2016. "Stock market recovery from the 2008 financial crisis: The differences across Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 360-374.
    12. Xiao Jing Cai & Shuairu Tian & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2016. "Dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil: evidence from emerging East Asian stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(40), pages 3789-3803, August.
    13. Ahmad, Wasim & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 209-225.
    14. Wasim Ahmad & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2014. "The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 325-352, July.
    15. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.

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