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Business Cycle Effects of Credit and Technology Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults

  • Pesaran, M. Hashem

    ()

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Xu, TengTeng

    (Bank of Canada)

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle dynamics, where firms rely on banks and households for capital financing. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm specific technology shocks, possible leading to default by some firms. The paper advances a new modelling approach for the analysis of financial intermediation and firm defaults that takes account of the financial implications of such defaults for both households and banks. Results from a calibrated version of the model highlight the role of financial institutions in the transmission of credit and technology shocks to the real economy. A positive credit shock, defined as a rise in the loan to deposit ratio, increases output, consumption, hours and productivity, and reduces the spread between loan and deposit rates. The effects of the credit shock tend to be highly persistent even without price rigidities and habit persistence in consumption behaviour.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 6027.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6027
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  1. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  2. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
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  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  5. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Hoffmann, Mathias & Schabert, Andreas, 2004. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission," CFR Working Papers 04-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  6. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
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  9. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2006. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Working Paper Series 0705, European Central Bank.
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  12. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1997. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 877-888, December.
  14. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  15. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  16. Alexius, Annika & Carlsson, Mikael, 2007. "Production function residuals, VAR technology shocks, and hours worked: Evidence from industry data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 259-263, August.
  17. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and banking in a DSGE model of the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 740, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  19. Césaire Meh & Kevin Moran, 2004. "Bank Capital, Agency Costs, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 04-6, Bank of Canada.
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