IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v45y2015icp124-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Loan loss provisioning, bank credit and the real economy

Author

Listed:
  • Pool, Sebastiaan
  • de Haan, Leo
  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.

Abstract

This paper examines how credit risk affects bank lending and the business cycle. We estimate a panel Vector Autoregression model for an unbalanced sample of 12 OECD countries over the past two to three decades, consisting of the output gap, inflation, the short-term interest rate, bank lending, as well as loan loss provisioning by banks (as proxy for credit risk). Our main findings are that: (i) bank lending and loan loss provisioning are important drivers of business cycle fluctuations, (ii) loan loss provisioning decreases in relative terms as bank lending increases, and (iii) bank lending is primarily affected by output fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Pool, Sebastiaan & de Haan, Leo & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2015. "Loan loss provisioning, bank credit and the real economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 124-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:124-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.04.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070415000488
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Greenbaum, Stuart I. & Kanatas, George & Venezia, Itzhak, 1989. "Equilibrium loan pricing under the bank-client relationship," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 221-235, May.
    5. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    6. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    7. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 9380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    9. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2012. "Provisioning rules and bank lending: A theoretical model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-31.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    11. Fonseca, Ana Rosa & González, Francisco, 2008. "Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 217-228, February.
    12. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    13. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    14. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 600-605, May.
    15. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    16. Ellen Gaston & In W Song, 2014. "Supervisory Roles in Loan Loss Provisioning in Countries Implementing IFRS," IMF Working Papers 14/170, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    18. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    19. Woodford, Michael & WALSH, CARL E., 2005. "Interest And Prices: Foundations Of A Theory Of Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 462-468, June.
    20. Bolt, Wilko & de Haan, Leo & Hoeberichts, Marco & van Oordt, Maarten R.C. & Swank, Job, 2012. "Bank profitability during recessions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2552-2564.
    21. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    22. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    23. Allen N. Berger & Asli Demirgüč-Kunt & Joseph G. Haubrich & Ross Levine, 2004. "Introduction: Bank concentration and competition: an evolution in the making," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 433-451.
    24. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    25. Berger, Allen N, et al, 2004. "Bank Concentration and Competition: An Evolution in the Making," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 433-451, June.
    26. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704.
    27. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sultan Mehmood & Avner Seror, 2019. "The Political Economy of Foreign Aid and Growth:Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 19-10, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    2. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.
    3. Guérineau, Samuel & Léon, Florian, 2019. "Information sharing, credit booms and financial stability: Do developing economies differ from advanced countries?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 64-76.
    4. Hassan Mazengera, 2017. "Derivation Of A Stochastic Loan Repayment Model For Valuing A Revenue-Based Loan Contract," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-29, September.
    5. Ozili, Peterson K, 2017. "Bank Loan Loss Provisions, Investor Protection and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 80147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. de Haan, Leo & van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2018. "Timing of banks’ loan loss provisioning during the crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 293-303.
    7. Serhat Yuksel & Mustafa Ozsari, 2016. "Impact of Consumer Loans on Inflation and Current Account Deficit: A Toda Yamamoto Causality Test for Turkey," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 3-14, December.
    8. Peterson, Ozili K. & Arun, Thankom G., 2018. "Income smoothing among European systemic and non-systemic banks," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 539-558.
    9. Ozili, Peterson K, 2018. "Bank Loan Loss Provisions, Investor Protection and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 80281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Indrani Manna, 2018. "Can We Still Lean Against the Wind?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 223-259, April.
    11. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver, 2017. "Unexpected loan losses and bank capital in an estimated DSGE model of the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 161-186.
    12. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2018. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer: the Czech example," ESRB Working Paper Series 82, European Systemic Risk Board.
    13. Changjun Zheng & Shumaila Meer Perhiar & Naeem Gul Gilal & Faheem Gul Gilal, 2019. "Loan Loss Provision and Risk-Taking Behavior of Commercial Banks in Pakistan: A Dynamic GMM Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, September.
    14. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "The intertwining of credit and banking fragility," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7cesh5fts89, Sciences Po.
    15. Samuel GUÉRINEAU & Florian LÉON, 2016. "Information sharing, credit booms, and financial stability," Working Papers P159, FERDI.
    16. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2018. "Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 625-636.
    17. Mohd Afandi Abu Bakar* & Noormahayu Mohd Nasir & Farrah Dina Abd Razak & Nor Samsinar Kamsi & Asmalia Che Ahmad, 2018. "Provision for Bad & Doubtful Financing and Contingency Reserve Management: Assessing Resilient and Stable Islamic Banks," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 621-627:6.
    18. Sebastiaan Pool, 2016. "Credit Defaults, Bank Lending and the Real Economy," DNB Working Papers 518, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan loss provisioning; Bank lending; Business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:124-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.